[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 172043
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with
warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized
for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial
wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance.  Iota
will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about
10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably
degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the
available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps
due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and
plenty of drier air in the vicinity.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is
over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides,
These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects,
especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a
couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Eta’s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.

2.  Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along
the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.7N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  18/0600Z 13.6N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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