[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.5N 82.0W at 16/1500 UTC
or 35 nm W of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Iota is a category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Iota is
forecast to bring catastrophic winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and torrential rainfall to Central America. A westward
general motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall,
a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the
forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the
hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and
will dissipate over central America by Wednesday. Iota is
forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane
when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening
is expected after landfall. Numerous strong convection is within
120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 10N-19N between 75W-85W.
Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be
exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in
significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. Iota is
forecast to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches in Honduras,
northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, and southern Belize, and isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.  Please refer to statements issued by
your national meteorological service for more details on the
rainfall and flooding threats. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.
shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave axis is along 26W from 21N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between
23W-30W.

A tropical wave axis is along 52W from 17N southward, moving W at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is along 66W from near the Virgin Islands
southward to across central Venezuela, moving W at 5-10
kt. The tropical wave is enhancing some convective activity over
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 07N17W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N17W to
06N27W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N30W and
continues to the coast of Brazil and the mouth of the Amazon
River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 30W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 16/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Daytona Beach
Florida to Tampa Florida to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N96W to
Tampico Mexico. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
Fresh N-NE winds follow behind the cold front with seas up to 5-6
ft in the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana.  Mainly
moderate NE winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf, with
seas 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The front will move SE through Tue, reaching the central Gulf
later today, then shifting SE of the basin by Tue night. Fresh
to strong NE winds are expected behind the front across the SE
half of the basin and Straits of Florida Tue through Thu night,
gradually diminishing Fri and Fri night. Hazardous seas are
expected in the S-central and SE Gulf Tue through Wed night as
swell from Hurricane Iota spreads through the Yucatan Channel
and combines with NE wind waves.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Major
Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm.
Also a tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above.

Outside of Iota and the tropical wave, fair weather prevails
across the eastern and far NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades
are noted in the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate NE
winds in the far NW basin. Seas range 3-6 ft outside of the
influence of Iota.

Iota will move to 13.7N 83.2W this evening, inland to 14.0N 84.8W
Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
14.1N 86.5W Tue evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 13.9N 88.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed
evening. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late
Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras
early Thu. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach
to the Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves
mix with southerly swell from Iota.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic along a position from
31N77W to Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N40W to 29N50W to 29N60W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind the
front.

The front over the W Atlantic will reach from 31N70W to the near
Fort Pierce, Florida early Tue, then from 29N65W to the central
Bahamas early Wed, and from 25N65W to the Turks and Caicos
early Thu where it will stall Thu night, then will weaken and
retreat NW Fri and Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will
develop behind the front Tue night through Fri night as the
pressure gradient tightens.

$$
Formosa
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