[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160914
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.6N 81.1W at 16/0900 UTC
or 20 nm NE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Iota is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
rapid strengthening is expected during the next 12-18 hours, and
Iota could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it
approaches Central America tonight. A westward to west-
northwestward motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall,
a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the
forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over
Providencia Island, Colombia during the next few hours, and make
landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras tonight. Peak seas are currently up
to 40 kt and could build some more early today. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of Iota.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere within
240 nm of the center, except within 300 nm in the NE quadrant.
Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead
to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across
portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras
and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent
effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts. Iota is forecast to produce rainfall amounts
of 8-16 inches in Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Belize, and isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches,
especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras, with
4-8 inches in Costa Rica and Panama, and isolated maximum totals
of 12 inches, with 3-5 inches in El Salvador and southern
Nicaragua, and isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Please refer
to statements issued by your national meteorological service for
more details on the rainfall and flooding threats.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES

A tropical wave axis is along 22W/23W from 21N southward across
the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this system at this time.

A tropical wave axis is along 52W from 16N southward, moving W at
around 10 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are noted from 07N-16N
between 48W-52W.

A tropical wave axis is along 65W/66W from near the Virgin Islands
and 18N southward to across central Venezuela, moving W at 5-10
kt. The tropical wave is enhancing some convective activity over
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 07N16W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N16W to the
coast of Brazil and the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted along
the ITCZ from 01N-09N between 18W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is noted from near Apalachee Bay, Florida to the
N-central Gulf near 27N95W, then continues as stationary to near
24N98W. No significant convection is noted with this boundary.
Fresh N-NE winds follow behind the cold front with seas up to 5-6
ft in the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. A trough is
noted in the Gulf from 27N85W to 22N89W with showers within 45-75
nm of the trough. Mainly moderate NE winds prevail across the
remainder of the Gulf with seas 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move SE through Tue, reaching the central
Gulf later today, then shifting SE of the basin by Tue night.
Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front across the
SE half of the basin and Straits of Florida Tue through Thu night,
gradually diminishing Fri and Fri night. Fresh to strong NW winds
will also funnel offshore of Veracruz beginning later this morning
through mid-week. Hazardous seas are expected in the S-central
and SE Gulf Tue through Wed night as swell from Hurricane Iota
spreads through the Yucatan Channel and combines with NE wind
waves.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Major
Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm.

Outside of Iota, fair weather prevails across the eastern and far NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern
Caribbean with gentle to moderate NE winds in the far NW basin.
Seas range 3-6 ft outside of the influence of Iota.

Iota will move to 13.8N 82.2W this afternoon, move inland to 14.1N
83.7W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 14.3N 85.2W
Tue afternoon, move to 14.3N 86.8W Wed morning, weaken to a
tropical depression near 14.1N 88.3W Wed afternoon, and move to
13.8N 89.7W Thu morning. Iota will dissipate early Fri. A cold
front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Tue, and stall from
eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras early Thu. Hazardous
seas will be possible across the approach to the Yucatan Channel
behind the front as northerly wind waves mix with southerly swell
from Iota.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is in the western Atlantic, which is remnant of an old
stationary front, from 31N71W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Showers are noted within 90 nm of this feature. A cold front
extends into the central Atlantic near 32N48W to 29N58W with the
tail-end of the front stalling to 29N68W. Scattered showers are
noted mainly N of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are
behind the front. A trough located in the central Atlantic is
analyzed from 27N49W to 19N57W. Scattered moderate convection is
SE of the trough to 13N between 49W-60W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are N and W of this trough along with seas of 7-9
ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere
N of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades and 6-8 ft in
mixed, mainly northerly swells S of 20N.

The trough E of northern Florida and NE of the northern Bahamas will
gradually dissipate today. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.
coast later this morning, reaching from 31N70W to the near Fort
Pierce, Florida early Tue, then from 29N65W to the central Bahamas
early Wed, and from 25N65W to the Turks and Caicos early Thu
where it will stall Thu night, then will weaken and retreat NW Fri
and Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will develop behind the
front Tue night through Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens. Winds may be higher in the coastal waters through the
Straits of Florida with hazardous conditions against the gulf
stream current likely.

$$
Lewitsky
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