[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.9N 85.5W at 10/0900 UTC
or 70 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba stationary. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is within 120 nm E and 30 nm W semicircles.
Eta will be near the western tip of Cuba and eastern portion of
the Yucatan Channel through today before moving northward.
Gradual strengthening is possible though Wed before beginning a
weakening trend Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details.

Subtropical Storm Theta is centered near 28.8N 39.5W at 10/0900
UTC or 830 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles. A
general ENE motion is expected to continue during the next two to
three days. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next
12 to 24 hours followed by little change in strength through
Thursday. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force E winds
continue across the western Atlantic to the east of Florida, with
frequent gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the coast of Florida.
The Gale Warning will expire early this morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean with axis
near 66W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is east of the wave axis from 12N-16N between 60W-65W.
This tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean
Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of
days. A tropical depression could then form late this week or over
the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5
days. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 07N24W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-
11N between 37W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of convection associated to T.S. Eta, the Gulf of Mexico
is free of any significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass
shows strong to near gale force winds over the eastern Gulf east
of 89W, from the Yucatan Channel to 30N, except for tropical storm
force winds near Tropical Storm Eta. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of 91W.

Eta will move to 23.1N 85.6W this afternoon, 24.0N 85.6W Wed
morning, 25.0N 85.4W Wed afternoon, 26.0N 85.3W Thu morning, 26.8N
85.3W Thu afternoon, and 27.3N 85.4W Fri morning. Eta will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 28.8N 86.5W early Sat. A
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary
over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then lift back north as
a warm front Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

T.S. Eta is close to the western tip of Cuba and the eastern
portion of the Yucatan Channel, and will remain in that vicinity
through today, spreading rain squalls and high seas over the
area. Eta will move northward and away from the Yucatan Channel
on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to propagate
over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday.

Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 15N-21N
between 66W-71W, including near and over portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. A recent ASCAT
pass shows fresh winds in the E Caribbean, strong winds in the NW
Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the basin.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the
central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure
could form along the wave with the potential for tropical
cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect
winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central
Caribbean beginning on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for information on Subtropical
Storm Theta and the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic.

A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic
from the NE Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida. Upper-level
diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 63W-81W. Stronger, more
concentrated convection is seen just north of Puerto Rico and in
the Mona Passage. Strong SE winds cover most of the area from the
Bahamas northward to 32N and eastward to 68W. Fresh winds are
elsewhere outside the stronger wind area from the Greater Antilles
to 32N between 60W-82W.

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure along the
Mid-Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico will support strong winds over the western Atlantic
today before diminishing Wed. These winds will maintain large
seas in the western Atlantic today before gradually subsiding
through late Thu night.

$$
AL
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