[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.2N 85.2W at 10/0300 UTC,
or 80 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba, moving SW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is within 120 nm S semicircle,
including the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
of the center in the N semicircle. Maximum significant wave
height near the center of Eta is currently 24 ft. The cyclone
will be near the western tip of Cuba and eastern portion of the
Yucatan Channel through today. Strengthening is possible today.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and then
continue through the end of the week as Eta moves northward.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

The gale force low that was near 29N41W has developed into
Subtropical Storm Theta. Subtropical Storm Theta is near 28.8N
40.3W as of 10/0300, or about 865 nm SW of the Azores, moving E
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The strongest
winds are occurring west of the center. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the
NE semicircle and 90 nm SW semicircle. A general ENE motion is
expected to continue during the next two to three days. Some
slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours
followed by little change in strength through Thursday. See the
latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Near gale force E winds continue
across the western Atlantic to the east of Florida, with frequent
gusts to gale force from 28N-31N between 78W-81W. Seas in the
area are 11 to 16 ft. The Gale Warning is forecast to expire by
1200 UTC this morning. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of
the wave axis from 14N-17N between 60W-64W, including near and
over Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe. This tropical wave is
forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of
low pressure could form in a couple of days. A tropical
depression could then form late this week or over the weekend
while the system moves slowly westward, and there is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days.
See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
13N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 06N27W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
04N-11N between 35W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is free of any significant precipitation,
outside of the convection associated with Tropical Storm Eta,
described above in the Special Features section. Eta's
rains are currently confined to areas south of 27N and east
of 88W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force
winds over the eastern Gulf east of 89W, from the Yucatan
Channel to 30N, except for tropical storm force winds near
Tropical Storm Eta. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of
91W.

Tropical Storm Eta will move to near 25N85W Wed morning, 27N85W
Thu morning, and to 28N86W late Fri. A cold front will move into
the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf
through Fri night, then lift back north as a warm front Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

T.S. Eta is close to the western tip of Cuba and the eastern
portion of the Yucatan Channel right now, and will remain in
that vicinity through today, spreading tropical storm force
squalls and high seas over the area. Eta will pull away from
the Yucatan Channel and move N, beginning on Wednesday. Large
swells from Eta are expected to propagate over the western
Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen between the Cayman
Islands and Cuba.

Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 15N-21N
between 66W-71W, including near and over portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. The
convection that is occurring over portions of the Lesser
Antilles is described in the Tropical Waves section above. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh winds in the E Caribbean, strong
winds in the NW Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the
basin.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the
central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure
could form along the wave with the potential for tropical
cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect
winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central
Caribbean beginning on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for information on newly
formed Tropical Storm Theta and the Gale Warning in the western
Atlantic.

A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic
from the NE Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida, as shown
in the latest TPW imagery. Upper-level diffluence over the area
is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms
from 20N-30N between 63W-81W. Stronger, more concentrated
convection is seen just north of Puerto Rico and in the Mona
Passage. Strong SE winds cover most of the area from the
Bahamas northward to 32N and eastward to 68W. Fresh winds
are elsewhere outside the stronger wind area from the Greater
Antilles to 32N between 60W-82W. Near gale force winds, with
frequent gusts to gale force, are from 28N-31N between 78W-81W.
High pressure is to the north of the area over the western
Atlantic, with a 1027 mb high north of Bermuda.

Farther east, a surface trough extends SW from Subtropical
Storm Theta to 20N49W. Scattered showers extend well southward
and eastward from this trough axis. Outside of the convection
directly associated with T.S. Theta described above, scattered
moderate convection extends from 23N-40N between 26W-41W. A 1028
mb high is centered near 39N13W.

A tight gradient between strong high pressure along the Mid
Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico will support strong to near gale force winds over the
western Atlantic during the next couple of days. Gale force winds
will continue off the coast of northern Florida through 0900 UTC
this morning. These winds will maintain large seas in the western
Atlantic through today before gradually subsiding through late
Thu night.

$$
Hagen
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