[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off
the coast of Colombia through at Mon night. Seas may reach near
13 ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
06N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N15W to 01N30W to the
Brazilian coast near 00N46W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are located within about 120 nm either side of these
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure extends E into the NE and central Gulf early
this morning. SE winds from the Yucatan Peninsula to SE Louisiana
are moderate to fresh, in advance of a weak cold front that is
located just off the Texas coast. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail over
the central and W Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are also
occurring in the Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is located
just W of the Yucatan Peninsula, from 22N90W to 19N92W. Aside from
light showers along the frontal boundary, no convection is noted
across the basin early this morning.

The cold front will stall by midday off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts, then lift N out of the Gulf as a warm front late tonight.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds will affect waters off the N
Yucatan coast this afternoon due to another surface trough
developing over the peninsula. Another cold front will enter the
NW Gulf early Tue morning, then track through the Gulf through
late Wed. Some strong W to NW winds are possible over the NE Gulf
behind the front Tue afternoon and night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the gale area, fresh trade winds are occurring through
the central Caribbean and Windward Passage, along with seas of 4
to 6 ft. Some fast moving showers are moving through the eastern
Caribbean, westward to Jamaica.

High pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda will drift
S and cause trades in the central Caribbean to increase to strong
later today into early Mon. Seas of 7 to 9 feet can also be
expected. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening through at
least Tue over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N68W, between Bermuda
and The Bahamas. To the east, a stationary front extends from
31N46W to 22N59W. The front is dissipating from 22N59W to the
Mona Passage. To the N, a cold front has moved into the area, and
resides from 31N49W to 27N58W to 31N65W. Fresh trade winds are
occurring mainly S of 22N and through the Turks and Caicos
Islands, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Fresh SW winds are also
occurring N of 27N and W of 72W. Another high pressure of 1020 mb
is located near 29N32W. Moderate winds are occurring to the S and
E of this high. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are being observed between the
Cabo Verde Islands and Senegal.

The stationary front will be absorbed by the cold front by midday.
The western high pressure midway between Bermuda and The Bahamas
will weaken and drift south through early next week, reaching an
area between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Puerto Rico by Tue
night. Another cold front may reach just offshore the SE U.S.
coast early Mon morning before stalling. Low pressure is likely to
form along this boundary. Tue near the South Carolina or Georgia
coast, causing the portion of the front S of the low to accelerate
E through the middle of the week. Strong SW winds will occur ahead
of this front N of 25N starting Tue night. Behind the front strong
to possibly near gale force W and NW winds are likely N of 25N
between 50W and 70W for the latter part of the week.

$$
KONARIK
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