[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gale winds pulsing
off the coast of Colombia through at least Mon night. Seas may
reach near 12 ft by each early morning. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S45W. Scattered showers are noted along these boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf from southwest
Florida to the north Texas coast. Recent scatterometer and buoy
data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds from Yucatan to the
coast of Louisiana, between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and a cold front currently extending along the Texas and
Mexico coastlines. Buoy data is showing 5 to 8 ft seas over much
of the western Gulf. Another area of moderate to fresh winds is
noted in scatterometer data over the Florida Straits, mainly south
of 25N and east of 85W. Farther south, a surface trough has
developed over the Yucatan Peninsula extending from 22N88W to
20N91W. No significant convection is noted across the basin at
this time.

The cold front will move slowly SE through Sun morning, then stall
Sun afternoon and retreat N as warm front Sun night into Mon.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds will affect waters off the N
Yucatan coast Sun due to a surface trough over the peninsula.
Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue morning, then track
across the N Gulf through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Earlier ship observations and scatterometer satellite data
indicated strong to near gale force winds off the coast of
Colombia. A concurrent altimeter satellite showed seas to 9 ft in
the area of strongest winds, although seas to 10 ft are likely a
little farther downstream. Elsewhere, ship and buoy observations
along with other scatterometer passes showed moderate to fresh
trade winds. Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range. Regional
radar showed the usual trade wind showers across mainly the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as a few
near the ABC islands. A sharp upper trough reaches east to west
from Puerto Rico to south of Jamaica, supporting a few showers and
thunderstorms from west of the southern peninsula to Haiti to
south of Jamaica.

High pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
through Tue. Gale force winds will pulse along the Colombian coast
each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will also
pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras through the next few
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic
near 29N67W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N47W
to 25N55W to 19N69W. Fresh trade winds are ongoing mainly south
of 22N to the coast of Hispaniola into the Turks and Caicos
Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the open waters outside of the
Bahamas. A few fast moving trade wind showers are possible south
of the high pressure going toward the southern Bahamas. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1022 mb high pressure centered near 28N30W. Farther east, an
altimeter pass indicated an area of 6 to 8 ft seas between Senegal
and the Cabo Verde Islands, related to northerly swell.

The front over the central Atlantic should weaken and dissipate
by Sun morning. High pressure centered midway between Bermuda and
The Bahamas will remain nearly stationary or drift slowly S into
the start of next week. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S coast Mon morning, but stall just off the coast Tue, then
weaken and dissipate by Tue night. Strong SW winds are expected N
of 25N Tue night and Wed ahead of a strong cold front, which will
usher in strong NW winds behind it N of 25N Wed through Thu night.


$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net