[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10
feet, are present from 10N to 12N between 74W and 77W, along the
coast of Colombia. The gale-force winds will last until Saturday
morning. The wind speeds will slow down to less than gale-force,
from Saturday morning until Saturday night. The gale-force NE
winds will return to the coastal areas of Colombia, from 11N to
12N between 74W and 77W, on Saturday night. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest
OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W near the border with Sierra Leone, to 05N14W, and to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W, to 03N18W, 01N20W, 01N23W,
and to 01N32W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
from 01N southward between 43W and 49W, to the coast of Brazil.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 05N
southward from French Guiana eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N72W, to central Florida, into the
east central Gulf of Mexico, into the central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico, and to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

The sky conditions range from fair skies to broken ceilings, and
some visibilities range from 2 miles to 3 miles. These are some
observations for the offshore oil platforms, that are in the
north central sections and northwestern sections of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface ridge will remain in the northern Gulf of Mexico through
the weekend. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday evening. The cold front will stall in the NW and N Gulf
from Sunday into Monday. Fresh SE winds are expected in advance of
this front. A second and stronger cold front will enter the Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across Hispaniola, into the central
Caribbean Sea, and curving to Nicaragua. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. Precipitation:
Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds, mostly from
84W eastward.

The current 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, that is
near 29N72W, will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds will pulse along
the coast of Colombia each night through Monday night. Fresh to
strong winds also will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N53W to 24N56W to 15N56W.
The trough is supporting the cold front that passes through 32N52W
to 25N60W, to 22N65W, and to the eastern part of the Dominican
Republic near 18.5N69W. Another part of a separate upper level
trough cuts across Hispaniola, and it continues into the central
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 14N57W to 23N55W to 29N51W, beyond 32N51W.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 29N72W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from the 32N52W-to-Dominican Republic cold front
westward. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 31N39W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 50W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N19W.
The upper level cyclonic center is moving across the northernmost
parts of the Canary Islands, and in the direction of the southern
coast of Morocco. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward from 23W eastward. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 21N northward from 30W eastward.

The current cold front will move eastward, and dissipate by
Saturday morning. High pressure is building across the northern
waters in the wake of the front, and will remain there through
Sunday. A second cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast
early on Monday. Strong SW winds are expected N of 25N, from
Tuesday night into Wednesday, in advance of the next cold front.
Strong NW winds are expected behind the front, with the sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet.

$$
MT
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