[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2101 UTC Fri Mar 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over N
Colombia and high pressure over the W Atlantic is supporting
fresh to strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Winds will pulse
to gale force during the overnight hours each night through Mon.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near
07N11W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N32W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N-06N between 10W-16W. Isolated moderate convection
is N of the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 16W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge extends from 1019 MB high pressure near
29N72W across the northern Gulf along 27N/28N. Moderate to fresh
SE to S return flow, and seas in the 4-6 ft range, prevails over
the western Gulf. Light to gentle return flow, and seas in the
1-3 ft range, prevails across the eastern Gulf.

High pressure will continue across the Gulf through Sun. A cold
front will just reach the NW Gulf Sat evening, then stall near
the Louisiana and Texas coasts by Sun night. Ahead of the front,
moderate to locally strong SE winds are expected. A stronger cold
front could enter the Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the above Special Features section for information on
gales off the coast of Colombia.

Weak high pressure N of the area is supporting fresh to strong
winds, and seas in the 5-7 ft range, over the south central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas in the 3-5 ft
range, are noted elsewhere.

High pressure over the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean. Gale force winds will
pulse along the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night.
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse each night over the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered over the W Atlantic near 29N72W.
A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N56W to E Hispaniola
near 19N69W.  Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted N of 24N within 180 nm E of the cold front. The cold front
has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft range N
of 25N W of the front. Seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail
elsewhere over the open Atlantic waters N of 21N, while 1-2 ft
seas are noted W of the Bahamas. A 1025 mb high is centered over
the E Atlantic near 31N38W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail
over the tropical Atlantic S of the area of high pressure,
supporting seas in the 5-8 ft range.

The cold front will dissipate tonight. High pressure over the W
Atlantic in the wake of the front will prevail through Sun.
Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon.

$$
MF/AL
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