[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N15W, where it transitions to ITCZ, and
continues on 01N33W, to the Equator along the mouth of the amazon
river near 49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted south of 04N and east of 15W, and within 210 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 14W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
with a weak and narrow ridge extending from north of the Windward
Passage through the Straits of Florida to near 90W. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico and is
producing stable conditions and nearly cloud free skies south of
27N.

Fair to partly cloudy skies, and patchy for reducing visibilities
from 4 miles to 6 miles are being reported at some of the offshore
oil platforms that are in the north central and northwestern
sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will prevail through early Thursday. A weak frontal
trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters this morning,
before dissipating on Thursday night. High pressure will build
across the NE Gulf of Mexico from Friday through Saturday to
produce fresh to locally strong return flow across all but the NE
part of the Gulf. A cold front will move into the western Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday night. Expect a modest increase in NE winds
and the sea behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate
in the northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends across the NE Caribbean to near the
Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. This is producing stable conditions
aloft and fair weather across most of the west half of the basin.
A pair of low level perturbations can be seen in satellite
imagery across the east and central Caribbean, with associated
surface troughs along 63W/64W from 16N into the Atlantic near 23N,
and along 70W. Scattered light convection accompanies both of
these troughs, mainly to the east of each trough axis.

High pressure across the W Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
the weekend. Minimal gale-force winds are expected Friday night
and Saturday night, and on Sunday night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A west Atlantic cold front passes through 32N70W then turns
westward to the coast along the Florida-Georgia border near
30.5N81.5W, then continues westward to SW Alabama. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is occurring SE of the front, to the
north of 29N between 66W and 70W and continuing northward ahead of
the front across the NW Atlantic. Scattered light convection is
elsewhere south of the front to 28.5N between 70W and a surface
trough along 77.5W.

An old frontal boundary is drifting very slowly southward across
the Ne waters, from 29N41W to 28N35W to beyond 31N26W. Scattered
light convection is within 45 nm south of the front to the east of
30W. Fresh NNE winds and building N swell are found behind the
front moving southward.

This front is supported by a broad upper level trough coverings
the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from 35W eastward. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N28W.

To the west of this front, weak high pressure extends from near
31N45W to near 24N72W and then west through the Straits of
Florida. This ridge will be nudge northeastward during the next 24
hours as a weak cold front move SE across the offshore Florida
waters and gradually becomes stationary across the south central
Bahamas along about 24N on Sat and dissipates. Deepening low
pressure across the NW Atlantic is producing moderate to large N
swell behind this front that will propagate southward across the
northern waters tonight through Friday night. High pressure will
build across the northern waters in the wake of the front late on
Friday, and prevail through Sunday. A cold front will move into
the northern waters on Monday.

$$
Stripling
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