[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 01N22W. ITCZ extends from 01N22W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered showers are noted within 75
nm north of the boundaries between 18W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. Patchy fog
continues to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north of 26N
and west of 89W. Seas across the basin are ranging between 1 to 3
ft.

A weak high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf
will maintain moderate SE return flow and patchy fog across the
NW Gulf through Wed. Low pressure forming over northern Mexico
and a strengthening W Atlc ridge will support fresh return flow
across most of the basin later this week. A slow-moving cold front
will reach the NW Gulf Fri night, then stall and weaken over the
northern Gulf Sat through Sun. Strong NE to E winds will develop
each evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight
as the associated trough moves offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the northeast Caribbean from 18N66W
to 14N65W. Scattered showers are noted with this trough, moving
across the Virgin Islands westward into Puerto Rico. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong winds north of Colombia with
fresh winds across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
trades are noted in the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas are 3
to 6 ft.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south-
central Caribbean through this weekend, with near-gale force
winds developing each night near the coast of Colombia. Gale force
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Thu night as high
pressure builds north of the area. The surface trough over the NE
Caribbean will shift westward and weaken through Wed. Strong
winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
through at least Sat. Building high pressure over the NW Atlc
will increase winds and seas over the NE Caribbean and east of the
Leeward Islands Thu night into this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from is in the
western Atlantic from 29N75W to 24N75W with no significant
weather associated with it. Farther east, a 1016 mb surface low
is analyzed near 29N50W with a warm front extending northeast to
31N49W. A cold front extends south of the low to 23N56W. A pre
frontal trough extends from 26N48W to 23N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with these features from 24N-31N between 44W-
50W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are behind the front and
low. Seas are 7 to 12 ft in the central Atlantic near the frontal
system.

The trough over the western waters will dissipate overnight.
Strengthening high pressure over the NW Atlc will increase winds
and seas south of 27N Wed night through Fri night. A cold front
will move off the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and stall over
the northern waters late Sun and Sun night.

$$

ERA
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