[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
near the coast of Guinea-Bissau 11N15W to 01N21W. ITCZ extends
from 01N21W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is north of
00N to 05N between 11W-36W, and scattered showers near the coast
of Brazil from 04S-00N between 36W to 43W. A surface trough is
also observed over the Bay of Campeche near 22N91W to 18N93W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging dominates the basin supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds except over the SE portion NE of
Cuba, where moderate to fresh easterly winds are depicted in
scatterometer data from 23N-24N between 80W-84W. Patchy fog
continues to be reported in the northwest Gulf mainly north
of 26N and west of 89W.

A weak ridge across the northern Gulf will produce moderate to
fresh SE return flow and patchy morning fog across the NW Gulf
through Wed. Low pressure forming over interior Mexico and a
strengthening W Atlc ridge will induce fresh return flow across
most of the basin later this week. A slow moving cold front will
reach the northern Gulf Fri night, where it will stall and weaken
through late Sat. Strong NE to E winds will develop each evening
north of the Yucatan Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the
associated trough moves offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds dominate the Caribbean waters,
except for fresh NE winds over the waters south of Cuba, south
of Hispaniola and and along the coast of Colombia. To the NE,
a surface trough extends from 20N61W to 15N63W with scattered
showers in the vicinity of the trough axis.

High pressure across the NW Atlc will support fresh to strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days.
Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu
night. A surface trough across the Anegada Passage and into the
Atlc along 63W-64W will shift slowly W to 70W and weaken through
Thu morning. Strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola at night through Sat. Building high pressure
will increase winds and seas over the NE Caribbean and east of the
Leeward Islands Thu night through Sat

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N74W to
27N72W. This trough is well depicted in scatterometer data, with
moderate to fresh southwesterly winds prevailing east of the
trough, and moderate northeasterly winds prevailing west of the
trough. To the east, the tail of a stationary front extends from
30N50W to 26N58W. A pre-frontal trough with a 1016 low pressure
is centered near 28N49W to 23N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is present along and east of the front to about 100 nm east, and
scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 24N to 31N
between 46W-50W east of the trough.

There are a pair of troughs south of 18N, one around 400 nm east
of the Lesser Antilles from 18N52W to 13N53W to 09N52W, and second
trough is from 07N47W to 00N48W. No significant convection is noted
near the first trough. However, the second trough shows area of
moderate to isolated strong convection along the trough between
44W-50W. Further east, a weakening cold front extends into the
Atlantic waters from 27N13W to 26N15W. ASCAT indicated northerly
fresh winds behind thefront across the Canary Islands to 21W.
South of the front an area of fresh to strong is indicated from
19N-24N between 16N20W. Otherwise, surface ridging dominate the
remainder central and eastern Atlc waters with fair weather.

A trough from 27N73W to 31N77W will drift SW and dissipate later
today. Strengthening high pressure north of the area will increase
winds and seas south of 27N Wed night through Sat. A cold front
will move off northern Florida on Sat night.

$$
MMTorres
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