[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W to Brazil near
03S43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon
trough from 02N-07N between 08W-17W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-07S between 24W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W.
5-15 anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds over
the high and strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. Isolated
showers are over the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf
has fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is
over Mexico and Texas along 100W. NW upper level flow is over the
Gulf with strong subsidence.

Areas of dense fog will affect waters within 30 nm of the coast
between Pensacola Florida and Morgan City Louisiana until mid
afternoon today. Areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast
will linger longer over the waters between Morgan City Louisiana
and Galveston Texas until around dawn Fri. Otherwise, a weak high
pressure ridge N of the Gulf will generally maintain light to
moderate E to SE winds over the basin through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 23N72W to
14N73W. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest
winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Gulf
of Honduras. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, E
Hispaniola, the Gulf of Honduras, E Honduras, E Nicaragua, and E
Costa Rica. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is
over the central Caribbean with its axis between 75W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Caribbean.

A high pressure ridge N of the area will support fresh to locally
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds
will strengthen early next week as a stronger high pressure ridge
builds E over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is E of the Bahamas from 21N-26N
between 62W-71W mainly due to an upper level trough. A 1032 mb
high pressure area is over the central Atlantic near 36N47W. A
1019 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 27N39W. A surface
trough extends S from the low to 24N40W. A shaerline continues to
22N45W to 23N54W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
shearline. A stationary front extends from 31N35W to the surface
low. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this front.

High pressure ridging from the central Atlantic to the Florida
coast will shift E ahead of a cold front that will sag S over the
western Atlantic Fri night and Sat. High pressure building E over
the western Atlantic in the wake of the front will cause winds
and seas to build E of the Bahamas Mon and Mon night.

$$
Formosa
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