[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120950
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06S-05N between 16W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf maintaining
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, along
with mainly seas of 2-4 ft. In the upper levels, a ridge is over
Mexico and Texas producing NW upper level flow over the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Mon.
Diurnally driven E to NE winds of 20 kt will occur during the
evenings hours within about 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula beginning on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the
basin, except fresh to strong in the S-central Caribbean. Seas
are mainly 4-7 ft, except 8-9 ft in the S-central Caribbean.
Scattered showers were noted over the Lesser Antilles and the
USVI, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Also, scattered showers are
noted along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. In the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central Caribbean
with its axis between 75W- 77W. Strong subsidence is over the
entire Caribbean. Strong subsidence is limiting convection south
of 15N between 68W- 80W.

Weak high pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds
will strengthen during the upcoming weekend as high pressure
builds N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb high pressure area is over the central Atlantic near
35N45W. A shear line enters the central Atlantic near 31N33W and
extends SW through 21N47W. A shear line extends from 30N34W to
21N49W to 19N66W. A ridge extends from the high WSW to Florida,
with a weak surface trough analyzed from 25N67W to 19N70W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from Hispaniola to the
eastern Bahamas and north to 26N between 65W-73W. Fresh to strong
winds were noted by scatterometer data from 22N-27N to the E of
the Bahamas, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are
mainly 8-10 ft E of the Bahamas, and 2-4 ft W of the Bahamas. E of
the offshore waters zones, fresh to strong winds were noted N of
the shear line, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of the
shear line. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and
shear line. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
Canary Islands producing scattered showers.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic with ridge
extending to central Florida will weaken slightly and drift N to
along 30N by Fri, then strengthen modestly over the weekend. A
cold front will move into the NW waters from Friday night into
Saturday before it weakens and dissipates through Saturday night.

$$
MMTorres
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