[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
into the Atlantic near 08N13W to 00N25W. ITCZ continues from
00N25W to 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
mostly south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ covering from
05S-05N betwen 17W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated high pressure centered over the central Atlantic
extends across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Pressure gradient
has weaken across the basin. Latest observations across the NW
Gulf indicates areas of fog especially from north of 26N and west
of 90W. A surface trough is well depicted along the west coast of
FL from 29N82W to 25N82W. A second trough is seen over the Yucatan
Peninsula extending from 22N89W to 16N89W. No significant convection
is observed with either trough at this time. Fresh easterly winds
were noted through the Straits of FL, with moderate return flow
elsewhere over the central and western Gulf. An atmospheric river
of mid-to-upper level moisture extends from the E Pacific Ocean
across S Texas and NE Mexico to across the west and central Gulf.
Radars near the coast do not indicate any rainfall, but can not
ruled out a few isolated showers over the waters north of 22N and
between 89W to 94W.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Fri,
with return flow dominating across the basin. A cold front will
briefly drop into the northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls
and retreats northward into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient is noted across the basin with broad
1031 mb high pressure NE of the area, and 1004 mb low pressure
analyzed over northern Colombia. Strong trades prevail in the
s-central Caribbean along with seas of 8-11 ft. Moderate to
fresh trades were noticed elsewhere along with seas of 5-8 ft.
A weak perturbation is noted in the western Caribbean supporting
scattered showers offshore of and inland across Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through tonight before diminishing Thu and Fri. Winds
will strengthen once again during the upcoming weekend. Large N
swell over the tropical N Atlc forecast zones will subside over
the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1031 mb high centered near 34N52W extends ridge W-SW to SE
Georgia and across northern Florida. A stationary front is
analyzed ESE of the high extending from 32N33W through 25N40W
where it continues as dissipating front to 23N43W, then continues
as a shear line to NE of the Virgin Islands near 19N65W. Isolated
to scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features.
A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the stationary front from
30N32W to 20N20W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted across a wide area from 22N-31N between 54W-62W. This
is been enhanced and supported by a sharp middle-to-upper level
trough axis extending from 35N60W to just E of the Turks and
Caicos. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N21W
is producing showers near the Canary Islands.

High pressure will prevail across the SW N Atlantic through
Friday before retreating eastward. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail across the waters S of 27N through tonight. High seas
in large NE swell across the waters E of the Bahamas are expected
to gradually subside to 8 ft or less through late Thu. A cold
front will move into the NW waters from Friday night into
Saturday before it weakens and dissipates through Saturday night.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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