[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
into the Atlantic near 09N13W to 00N25W. ITCZ continues from
00N25W to 03N30W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N to 06N between 14W and 20W, from 05N to 01N
between 19W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated ridge extends from across northern Florida across
the northern Gulf to the upper Texas coast. A weak trough was
analyzed in the SW Gulf from 21N95W to 19N94W. No significant
convection is noted with this trough. Fresh to strong easterly
winds and seas of 8-10 ft were noted through the Straits of FL,
with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere over the western
Gulf, and gentle to moderate over the central and western Gulf.
An atmospheric river of mid-to-upper level moisture extends from
the E Pacific Ocean across S Texas and NE Mexico to across the
west and central Gulf. This is enhancing scattered showers from
23N-27N and west of 89W.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to strong
winds currently over the SE waters will diminish tonight, with
return flow dominating across the basin through Fri. A cold front
will briefly drop into the northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls
and retreats northward into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient is noted across the basin with strong
high pressure NE of the area, and 1004 mb low pressure analyzed
over northern Colombia. Strong trades prevail in the S-central
Caribbean along with seas of 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades
were noticed elsewhere along with seas of 5-8 ft, except fresh to
strong NE winds S of Cuba. A weak perturbation is noted in the
western Caribbean supporting scattered showers isolated tstorms
offshore of and inland across Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Fresh to strong winds will blow across the south-central Caribbean
through Wed night, and then again during the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected Thu and Fri as a weaker
pressure pattern prevails across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1034 mb high centered ENE of Bermuda near 33N56W extends ridging
W-SW to SE Georgia and across northern Florida. A stationary front
is analyzed ESE of the high extending from 31N35W through 23N44W
where it continues as dissipating to 20N50W, then continues as a
shear line to NE of the Virgin Islands near 19N64W. Isolated to
scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these features. A
surface trough is analyzed from 24N67W to 19N66W in the N coast
of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted across a wide area east of the trough from 21N-30N between
58W-67W, enhanced and supported by a sharp middle-to-upper level
trough axis extending from 35N60W to just E of the Turks and
Caicos. In the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N21W is
producing showers near the Canary Islands.

A moderate to strong pressure gradient will continue to support
fresh to strong winds mainly across the waters S of 27N through
Wed night. High seas in large NE swell, currently affecting the
waters E of the Bahamas, are expected to gradually subside to 8 ft
or less through late Thu. High pressure is forecast to dominate
the SW N Atlantic through Friday, before retreating eastward. It
is possible that a cold front may drop SE into the NW waters, from
Friday night into Saturday, before it weakens and dissipates
through Saturday night.

$$
MMTorres
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