[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gale conditions expected over the south-central Caribbean...

Pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean will tighten
tonight supporting gale force winds mainly south of 12N between
76W-78W. These conditions will continue through the morning hours,
then pulsing once again on Wed night. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to the coast of Brazil near
02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough
from 02N-07N between 00W-25W. Similar convection is noted within
75 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1029
mb high centered in the western Atlantic near 35N53W. Patchy fog
is being reported across the north western and north central Gulf,
mainly N of 26N and W of 87W. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds covering the basin with fresh winds over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft across the whole area.

Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf through Wed
ahead of a cold front expected to come off the Texas coast by Wed
afternoon. Dense fog is expected to develop over the NW and NE
Gulf coastal waters tonight through Wed morning. The front will
move SE and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Thu afternoon and exit the basin late Fri morning. Fresh
to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front during
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above foe details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

The tail end of a stationary front extends along 20N from 60W-72W
enhancing convection across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent
waters. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
easterly winds north of Colombia, while moderate trades are noted
elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8 ft.

The ridge over the western Atlc extending SW to the NW Bahamas
will shift eastward through Wed night. A cold front will move
across the NW Caribbean by Fri morning, reach from Haiti to
Honduras by Sat evening before dissipating early on Sun. Strong to
near gale force winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Sat night, except pulsing to gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 35N53W.
A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to 23N50W,
then becomes stationary from that point to 20N73W. Scattered
showers are noted along and west of the cold front mainly between
40W-50W. To the east, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a
1027 mb surface high centered near 34N16W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds in the
western Atlantic N of 29N and W of 78W. Fresh northeasterly winds
are noted in the southern half of the central Atlantic cold
front. Seas are up to 9 ft near this front.

The frontal boundary across the central Atlantic will weaken as
it moves slowly east. High pressure ridge extending from the
central Atlc SW to the NW Bahamas will remain in place, and weaken
modestly Wed night through Thu. The next cold front will move
into the NW waters Thu night, then reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola
by Sat evening. Strong to near gale- force winds and building
seas are expected across the waters N of 27N ahead of the front
and behind the front Thu evening through Sat night.

$$

ERA
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