[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1210 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S30W to Brazil near
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough
from 02N-06N between 00W-10W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend across the Gulf from a 1029
mb high in the western Atlantic near 35N57W. Fog is being
reported across the north western and north central Gulf, N of
26N and W of 88W. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
covering the basin with strong winds over the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Gentle southerly winds are along the Texas coast. Seas
range from 3 to 6 ft. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the
Gulf with axis along 88W. Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf
N of 27N, while strong subsidence is over the S Gulf.

Return flow will prevail across the Gulf through Wed ahead of a
cold front expected to come off the Texas coast by Wed afternoon.
The front will move SE and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the
eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon and exit the basin late Fri
morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the
front during the forecast period. Otherwise, dense fog is expected
over the NW and NE Gulf through Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front drapes the northern Caribbean
from 21N60W to 20N67W to N of Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the front. Radar imagery also shows scattered
showers over Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong winds north of Colombia with seas up to 9 ft. Moderate
trades are seen elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8 ft. Strong
winds are also over northern Hispaniola. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 85W. Upper level
subsidence is over the entire Caribbean.

A ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Wed
night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri morning,
extend from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening before dissipating
early on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will continue in the
south-central Caribbean through Sat night, except for gale winds
off the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 35N57W.
A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 25N44W.
A quasi-stationary front continues to N of the Leeward Islands
near 21N60W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm NE of the
fronts. A 1029 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 33N20W.
The latest scatterometer data depicts strong southerly winds in
the western Atlantic N of 29N and W of 78W. Fresh to strong
northeasterly winds are noted in the southern half of the central
Atlantic cold front, with strong winds on either side of the front
N of 26N. Seas are up to 9 ft near this front. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic
near 25N31W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the center.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through
Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night, then
reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola by Sat evening. Strong to near
gale force winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind
the front Thu evening through Sat night.

$$
Formosa
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