[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near
04342W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on
either sides of the boundaries between 10W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend across the Gulf from a 1028
mb high in the western Atlantic. Scattered showers are moving off
the Texas coast into the NW Gulf. The latest scatterometer data
and surface observations depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds covering the basin with strong winds near the Yucatan
Channel. Seas range from 3 to 7 ft.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Wed
before retreating east. This will enable a cold front to move off
the Texas coast Wed. The cold front will continue E to pass SE
of the Gulf by early Fri. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the Mona Passage from 18N67W to
17N69W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, impacting
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin with fair weather. The latest scatterometer
data depicts strong winds north of Colombia with seas up to 9 ft.
Moderate trades are seen elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8
ft. Strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Venezuela in
addition northern Hispaniola.

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will shift east
through Wed night. A cold front will reach the far NW Caribbean
Fri morning. The front will extend from Haiti to Honduras Sat
evening. Strong to near gale force winds will continue along and
near the coast of Colombia through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 33N64W.
A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 21N59W.
The tail-end of the front has stalled from 21N59W to the northern
coast of Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Scattered showers are within 100
nm of the front. A 1027 mb surface high is over the eastern
Atlantic near 33N19W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong
southerly winds in the western Atlantic N of 29N and W of 78W.
Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted in the southern half
of the central Atlantic cold front, with strong winds on either
side of the front N of 26N. Seas are up to 12 ft near this front.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
middle of the week. The next cold front will move into the NW
waters Thu night. The front will reach from 24N65W to Hispaniola
Sat night. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front.

$$
AKR
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