[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to
01S26W. The ITCZ extends from 01S26W to the coast of Brazil near
04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm on
either sides of the boundaries between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

15-20 kt southerly return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico due to a
1028 mb high over the western Atlantic near 32N71W. Radar imagery
shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. In the upper levels,
zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Wed
before retreating E. This will enable a cold front to move off
the Texas coast by Wed. The front will continue moving E exiting
the basin on Fri. High pressure will build once again across the
basin in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a slow moving cold front extends across the Mona
Passage ending near 17N70W. Scattered showers are noted along the
front affecting the area north of 20N between 60W-70W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair
weather. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are over the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds
over the Windward Islands.

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will shift E
through Wed night. The next cold front will reach the far NW
Caribbean by Fri morning. The front will then extend from Haiti to
Honduras Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds will
continue along and near the coast of Colombia through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N68W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N45W to 19N66W.
The tail end of a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N51W to
25N58W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A 1026
mb surface high is over the E Atlantic near 32N22W.

Expect for the fronts to weaken and dissipate by mid-week. High
pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
middle of the week. The next cold front will move into the NW
waters Thu night. The front will reach from 24N65W to Hispaniola
Sat night. Strong winds and building seas will follow the front.

$$

ERA
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