[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends in the eastern Atlantic from 10N
southward near 30W, moving westward at around 15 kt. The tropical
wave is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave
diagnostics. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 05N-08N between 27W-33W.

A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic with an axis near
18N45W to 06N54W, moving westward around 15 kt. The wave is well-
defined at the surface based on scatterometer passes this
morning. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 16-19N
between 43W-46W and isolated moderate convection is observed from
05N-12N between 48W-53W.

A tropical wave extends near the Lesser Antilles from 20N
southward near 61W, moving westward around 15 kt. Weak troughing
is evident at the surface with this wave north of 15N from
scatterometer and station data. No significant deep convection is
evident in association with the wave this morning.

A tropical wave extends in the W Caribbean from 14N southward
near 80W, moving westward around 10 kt. The tropical wave is
primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 10N-15N between 80W-83W in part due to the eastward extent
of the NE Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from inland in Guinea Bissau near 12N16W
to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 10N37W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from near 08N42W to 07N50W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection from 05N-09N between 12W-20W and 05N-08N
between 27W-32W. Additionally, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from 07N-10N between 43W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging prevails over the N Gulf of Mexico today with light
to moderate winds out of the southeast to south across the Gulf.
No significant convection is occurring today over the Gulf. Some
Saharan Air Layer/African dust has moved into the SW Gulf of
Mexico, though this is less extensive than the previous outbreak.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
week. This will support moderate to fresh SE winds over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east-
southeast just north of the Bahamas. The resulting pressure
gradient is causing generally moderate to fresh E trades this
morning, except for strong ENE trades just north of Colombia as
observed by scatterometer this morning. Most of the Caribbean is
covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event,
though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from some
convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave
and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, no other significant convection
is occurring today.

High pressure prevailing north of the area will support fresh to
strong trades across the south central Caribbean into the middle
of the week. Winds will briefly diminish the middle of the week as
the area of high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1033 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 37N37W with a
ridge extending to just north of the Bahamas. NE to E trades south
of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate with some fresh NE
trades 17N-25N west of 33W. Some of the big Saharan Air
Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days still remains north
of 25N west of 70W, though this should disperse today. A second
Saharan Air Layer/African dust region extends from around 07N-25N
between West African and 55W. However, this is not nearly as
dense as the one from a few days ago.

High pressure will prevail through mid-week. A surface trough
will move into the NW waters the middle of the week.


$$
Landsea
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