[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extending from 01N-13N with axis
along 26W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the wave environment mainly south of 08N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 04N-16N
with axis along 43W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted  moderate convection is from 05N-15N
between 38W-46W.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 03N-19N and along 55W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the
wave axis and south of 10N.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 17N with
axis along 81W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 16N between 77W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near
12N16W to 08N22W. The ITCZ extends from 08N22W to 06N25W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from near 06N27W to 08N42W. The
ITCZ resumes once again west of another tropical wave from 08N44W
to 05N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section above, scattered moderate convection prevails along the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high centered over the W Atlantic near 26N73W extends a
ridge axis towards SE Louisiana. Scattered showers are along the
coast of S Louisiana and over the E Gulf of Mexico N of 23N.

High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf into
late week. This will continue supporting moderate to fresh SE
winds over the western Gulf, and light to gentle winds over the
eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

A high pressure ridge extends just north of the Bahamas. The
resulting pressure gradient is causing moderate to fresh E
trades across the basin, with strongest winds prevailing just
north of Colombia. Most of the Caribbean is covered by a moderate
Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event, though visibilities are only
slightly inhibited. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the
SW Caribbean and Central America in connection with a tropical
wave and the NE Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure prevails north of the area supporting fresh to
strong trades across the south central Caribbean into the end of
the week. Pulses of fresh winds are also possible in the Gulf of
Honduras over the next few nights. A tropical wave is currently
moving across the west Caribbean with convection, while the next
one will approach the Leeward Islands by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

A 1018 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N73W. A 1031
mb high is centered SW of the Azores near 37N35W. Some of the
Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days still
remain north of 25N west of 70W. A new Saharan Air Layer/African
dust region extends from around 07N-25N between West African and
54W behind a tropical wave.

High pressure will dominate the area, bringing gentle to
moderate winds into mid-week. A tropical wave will approach
Atlantic waters north of the Lesser Antilles Tue.

$$
ERA
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