[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends in the eastern Atlantic from 12N
southward near 22W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave
is primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. No
significant convection is occurring in association with this
wave.

A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic from 17N
southward near 40W, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave
position had to be repositioned eastward this morning. The wave is
well-defined at the surface based on scatterometer passes this
morning. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N-15N
between 36W-42W.

A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic from 18N
southward near 54W, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave
position had to be repositioned eastward this morning. Weak
troughing is evident at the surface with this wave north of 13N.
No significant deep convection is evident in association with the
wave this morning.

A tropical wave extends in the Caribbean from 18N southward near
78W, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave position had to be
repositioned eastward this morning. The tropical wave is primarily
identified via GFS- based 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N-12N
between 78W-83W in part due to the eastward extent of the NE
Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from inland in Guinea Bissau near 12N16W
to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 10N37W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from near 08N42W to 07N50W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection from 05N-09N between 12W-20W and 05N-08N
between 27W-32W. Additionally, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from 07N-10N between 43W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging prevails over the N Gulf of Mexico today with light
to moderate winds out of the southeast to south across the Gulf.
Scattered showers are present over the NE Gulf.

High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf into
late week. This will bring moderate to fresh SE winds over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east-
southeast just north of the Bahamas. The resulting pressure
gradient is causing generally moderate to fresh E trades this
morning, except for strong E trades just north of Colombia as
observed by scatterometer this morning. Most of the Caribbean is
covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event,
though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from some
convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave
and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, scattered showers are observed
over the Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands.

With high pressure remaining centered north of the area, fresh to
strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean
into late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 36N32W with a
ridge extending to just north of the Bahamas. NE to E trades south
of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate. Some of the big
Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days still
remain north of 25N west of 70W, though this is weakening today.
A new Saharan Air Layer/African dust region extends from around
07N- 25N between West African and the Caribbean. However, this is
not nearly as dense as the one from a few days ago.

High pressure will dominate the area, bringing gentle to moderate
winds into mid-week.

$$
Landsea
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