[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa, extending its axis
along 18W from 03N-20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis, S of 08N.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 02N-18N and along 43W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the wave's axis and S of 10N.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 00N-17N and along 56W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along and east of the wave's axis and S of 10N.

A tropical wave is moving across the SW Caribbean with axis from
04N-21N and along 82W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is S of 17N between 77W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 08N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N22W to 08N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave
near 08N45W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection prevails along
the ITCZ, with strongest activity noted between 43W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable conditions prevail across the Gulf supported by surface
and middle level ridging. A weak pressure gradient across the
region sustain moderate return flow in the western half of the
basin and lighter winds elsewhere. Scattered showers are observed
over the northern Gulf offshore waters, supported by an upper
level trough over the north-central basin and moisture inflow from
northern Mexico.

The surface ridging will continue prevailing over the Gulf waters
through the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
are expected across most of the basin through Wed, except over the
northeast Gulf, where light winds will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

The convection present across the basin is mostly related to the
extension of the EPAC's monsoon trough, currently extending along
08N. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 10N between
76W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades south
of 14N between 73W-78W, while gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. The next tropical wave
is likely to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next
week enhancing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

Surface ridging prevails across the western Atlantic, anchored by
a 1019 mb high centered near 27N76W, and a 1029 mb high centered
over the eastern Atlantic near 36N32W. Fair weather prevails
across the basin.

Over the W Atlantic, light to gentle winds will prevail across
most of the waters through early next week as high pressure
extends across the area from the Central Atlantic. A surface
trough passing through the area may bring some moderate to
fresh westerly winds north of 28N through mid-week.

$$
ERA
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