[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 29W south of 14N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N within 150 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 43W south of 14N,
moving westward at 20-25 kt. No significant convection is noted
with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave axis along 61W is crossing the Windward Islands,
moving westward at 20-25 kt. This wave is evident in precipitable
water satellite imagery. Isolated weak convection is noted from
13N to 16N within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 76W south of 15N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at
this time, as Saharan dust prevails over the central and western
Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 07N28W, resumes
from 07N30W to 07N35W to 06N41W, then continues from 05N44W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 28W, and between
37W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening over the
NW Gulf off the southern Texas coast. Earlier scatterometer data
indicated fresh to locally strong winds were occurring near these
storms. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow prevails over the
western Gulf, around a surface high pressure ridge that dominates
the eastern Gulf. Significant wave heights at buoy 42055 in the
SW Gulf have been hovering between 6-7 ft for much of the day.
Otherwise, seas are generally 3-6 ft in the western Gulf, and 3 ft
or less E of 88W. GOES-16 satellite data highlights a dense plume
of Saharan dust over much of the central and northern Gulf, which
is inhibiting convection and producing hazy conditions across the
region.

A surface ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are forecast over
the western Gulf through tonight due to the pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low centered near Jamaica is providing favorable
dynamics to support isolated to scattered convection over and
south of the Greater Antilles. Dense Saharan dust persists over
the central and western Caribbean. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of a tropical wave that is
crossing the Windward Islands this evening. At the surface, strong
winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas
per recent altimeter data and ship observations. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds persist across the rest of the basin, south of a
strong high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force
off the coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with seas
building to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong
winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through
late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong Bermuda-Azores high pressure dominates the Atlantic basin,
with a ridge axis extending across the SW N Atlantic offshore
waters and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds
are noted in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Earlier scatterometer
data shows fresh trades prevail south of the ridge across the
tropical Atlantic waters between 30W and 60W, with 7-9 ft seas
supported by multiple altimeter passes in this region.

The Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast region over
the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds
will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night
through Sat night.

$$
B Reinhart
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