[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W south of 15N, moving west
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 13N, moving west
at 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
150 nm of the wave axis from 04N-11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W south of 16N, moving
west at 20 to 25 knots. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W south of 14N, moving
west at 20 to 25 knots. No significant convection is noted with
this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia/Senegal
near 13N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ  continues from 09N20W to
08N26W. It resumes from 08N28W to 06N39W, and resumes from 06N41W
to the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N east of 21W to the coast of
Africa. Elsewhere, aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 of the ITCZ.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level divergence is enhancing convection across the western
Gulf. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of
29N and west of 91W. GOES-16 satellite data shows Saharan dust
continues across the central and northern Gulf, and the stable
airmass which the dust is embedded in is helping to limit
convection across the eastern Gulf. A surface ridge extends
across the eastern Gulf waters anchored by a 1021 mb high near
29N84W. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over the
western Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails
across the eastern Gulf. Seas range 2 to 5 ft.

A ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through the weekend.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are forecast over the
western Gulf through tonight due to the pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over Jamaica. This low is helping
enhance convection between the Cayman Islands to the west coast
of Puerto Rico. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows Saharan dust
continues across the Caribbean Sea. The densest areas of dust are
west of 70W, where the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions.
The dry and stable air mass that accompanies the dust it is
helping to suppress precipitation across much of the Caribbean
Sea. There is enough moisture to support isolated low topped
tradewind showers across the Lesser Antilles. Strong to near gale
force winds prevail across the south central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean
waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft, with seas up to 7 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras and 10 ft in the south central Pacific where the near
gale force winds are occurring.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale
force off the coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with
seas building to 11 or 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to
strong winds are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the Atlantic. A trough continues
to linger across the central Atlantic from 32N59W to 24N65W.
Isolated thunderstorms are within 50 nm of this trough. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted south of 22N. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail around the ridge. The Bermuda-Azores
high will dominate the forecast region over the next several days.
Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the
waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sun night.

A plume of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical Atlantic
generally from 10N to 24N east of 50W to the coast of Africa. The
stable airmass the dust is embedded in is limiting deep
convection across this area.

$$
AReinhart
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