[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W S of 15N, moving westward
at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 210 nm of the wave axis S of 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W S of 20N, moving westward
at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection
is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 07N to 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W S of 18N, moving westward
at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm
of the wave axis S of 15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W S of 21N, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 150 nm W of the wave axis S of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 08N23W to 05.5N32W. The
ITCZ continues from 05.5N32W to 03N50W. Aside from the convection
noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 18W to
the coast of Africa. Isolated moderate convection is noted within
60 nm of the ITCZ W of 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf of Mexico to the
SW coast of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted over the SE Gulf of Mexico, south of the
surface trough and east of 87W.

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near
28N85W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Gulf,
and light to gentle winds prevail over the eastern Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as the
pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure
over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails N of the area, over the SW N Atlantic
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong
to near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

Fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean will
expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the
coast of Colombia each night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence ahead of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection over the
waters west of a line from 32N70W to the Florida Straits,
including the NW Bahamas. A surface trough extends from 32N47W to
22N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within
180 nm east of the trough from 23N to 28N. A large area of Saharan
dust cover the tropical Atlantic E of 45W to Africa with dry and
hazy conditions. Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail S of 20N.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters N of 20N.

A ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola at night.

$$
AL
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