[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical
wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is
surrounded by ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave
is moving through the area of the ITCZ. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical
wave, from 12N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 300 nm to
the west of the tropical wave, from 05N to the coast, in
Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N and SE
Cuba southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 74W and
77W in northern Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N
from 74W in Colombia beyond 85W in Costa Rica.

A tropical wave is along 90W, from 17N in Guatemala southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 11N to 20N
between 86W and 94W, from the eastern Pacific Ocean to the
Yucatan Peninsula between Honduras and the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W, curving to 12N22W 08N23W 07N30W, and
05N32W. The ITCZ continues from 05N32W to 04N40W and 03N50W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
05N to 14N from 18W eastward, and from 02N to 08N between 26W
and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough extends from the central Gulf of Mexico, to the
SW coast of Florida, northward, beyond north Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in the Atlantic Ocean, to the northwest of the line that runs
from the Atlantic Ocean side of SE Cuba near 21N to 29N68W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong also is in the SE Gulf of
Mexico, to the south of the surface trough, from 92W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the NE corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, from the surface trough northward. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 28N84W.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sunday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast in the western Gulf of Mexico, from Monday night
through Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between
the ridge and lower pressure in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N and SE
Cuba southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 74W and
77W in northern Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N
from 74W in Colombia beyond 85W in Costa Rica.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows a slight NE-to-SW oriented
inverted trough across Jamaica. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 17N to Cuba
between 77W and 83W. Isolated moderate precipitation is at the
eastern end of Hispaniola, and at the western end of Hispaniola,
also.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Friday, and then expand in coverage during
this weekend, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic
Ocean. The winds will pulse to near gale-force, near the coast
of Colombia, from tonight through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough extends from the central Gulf of Mexico, to the
SW coast of Florida, northward, beyond north Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in the Atlantic Ocean, to the northwest of the line that runs
from the Atlantic Ocean side of SE Cuba near 21N to 29N68W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is about 460 nm
to the east of a surface trough, that is along 34N47W 24N48W
21N51W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the area of the of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is
to the east of the surface trough.

A ridge will continue to build across the region for the
remainder of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly
winds will pulse, to the north of Hispaniola, at night.

$$
mt
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