[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of western Africa along 13W,
S of 14N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-09N between 08W-16W.

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic analyzed along 33W-34W, S of
14N moving W at 10-15 kt. A large area of Saharan Air surrounds
the wave N of 12N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are found from 04N to 09N between 34W and 40W.

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic analyzed along 55W, S of 17N
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01N-11N between 45W-59W.

A tropical wave is exiting the W Caribbean, analyzed along 88W-
89W, S of 19N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America and the W Caribbean behind the wave, and extends eastward
to a line from 21N84W to 10N77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to the coast of South
America near 04N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is over central Florida and the NE Gulf of
Mexico from Melbourne, Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi
River. Dry air and subsidence behind the front are leaving clear
to partly cloudy skies across most of the N Gulf. Elsewhere, a
surface trough is over the SW Bay of Campeche and parallel to
the coast from 23N97W to 18N93W. Scattered weak showers are
within 120 nm E of the trough axis.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days supporting mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas generally under 5 ft. Fresh northerly winds are expected each
late afternoon and evening near and to the NW of the western
Yucatan Peninsula due to daily heating effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is over Colombia W of 71W, while
skies are clear and hazy across most of the Caribbean E of 80W.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean along 88W-89W will
will move inland across the Yucatan and Central America tonight,
with active convection trailing it across the W Caribbean tonight.
Another tropical wave along 55W will cross the Windward Islands
on Wed, reaching the central Caribbean on Thu. A third tropical
wave along 33W-34W will reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by
late Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will remain over
the south- central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage
beginning late on Fri and through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to Melbourne,
Florida. Clear skies are found behind the front. A prefrontal
surface trough extends from 28N75W to the N Bahamas near 25N77W to
W Cuba near 23N80W. Broken multilayered clouds and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends from the base of the
trough across the Bahamas NE to Bermuda. Another surface trough
is over the W Atlantic from 29N60W to 26N69W, and the
aforementioned convection is mainly occurring between the two
troughs. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the E Atlantic
near and SE of the Canary Islands.

Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and thunderstorms,
are expected to persist over the western Atlantic and the
Bahamas through Thu due to the two troughs over the W Atlantic
and the Bahamas. The troughs will move eastward through Wed
while weakening. A ridge will follow. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms.

$$
Stripling
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