[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of western Africa along 12W,
S of 14N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-09N between 09W-17W.

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic along 32W, S of 14N moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic along 54W, S of 17N moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N-15N between 48W-58W.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 87W, S of 19N
moving W at 10-15 kt.  Scattered showers are over the NW
Caribbean and along the coast of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 08N31W. The ITCZ
continues W of a tropical wave from 07N34W to 06N44W to the
coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are within
120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over N Florida and the NE Gulf of Mexico from
Cocoa Beach Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Radar
imagery shows scattered showers within 45 nm of the front over
the NE Gulf. Similar showers are over the Straits of Florida.
Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from
22N96W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
trough axis.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days supporting mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds and
seas generally under 5 ft. Fresh northerly winds will
occasionally occur near and to the NW of the western Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 15N and
W of 77W. Elsewhere, isolated showers are over the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean along 87W will
will move W of area today. Another tropical wave along 54W will
cross the Windward Islands on Wed, reaching the central
Caribbean on Thu. A third tropical wave along 32W will reach the
Tropical N Atlantic waters by late Thu. Otherwise, fresh to
strong trade winds will remain over the south-central Caribbean
through Fri, then expand in coverage beginning late on Fri and
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to Cocoa Beach
Florida. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A
prefrontal surface trough extends from 28N75W to the N Bahamas
near 25N77W to W Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm of the trough axis. Another surface trough is
over the W Atlantic from 29N60W to 26N69W. Scattered moderate
convection is also within 180 nm of this trough. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over the E Atlantic near the Canary
Islands.

Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and thunderstorms,
are expected to persist over the western Atlantic and the
Bahamas through Thu due to the two troughs over the W Atlantic
and the Bahamas. The troughs will move eastward through Wed
while weakening. A ridge will follow. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms.

$$
Formosa
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