[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
722 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N southward moving W at
10 kt. Only scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 13N southward moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N-12N between 54W-56W, with additional deep
convection inland over French Guiana and Suriname. Some areas of
heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the
Windward Islands on Thursday and Thursday night as the wave
continues westward.

A tropical wave is along 69W/70W from 17N southward moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of
15N between 64W-77W, with additional deep convection inland over
western Venezuela and eastern Colombia, as well as across the
A-B-C Islands.

A tropical wave is along 88W from the Gulf of Honduras near 17N
southward, extending across western Honduras to eastern El
Salvador, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted over the Gulf of Honduras, however deep convection is noted
across adjacent land areas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N37W, then
resumes from 03N39W to the equator at 50W near the coast of
Brazil. Other than the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N-10N between 12W-21W, from 03N-06N between 27W-33W,
and from 02N-04N between 40W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana to near the
Texas/Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted near the front over water, with deep convection noted
inland over southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Elsewhere, radar
imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
Florida Peninsula.

A weak ridge extending from N Florida WSW to the central Gulf and
will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds, highest in the
western Gulf, most of the week. The cold front will reach a line
from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf Thu night, then stall
and gradually dissipate from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay
of Campeche late Fri through Sat. Weak ridging will then prevail
for the end of the weekend into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves waves are in the Caribbean as noted above,
while the eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough is
producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
the SW Caribbean to include Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia, and W
Venezuela. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the Windward Islands. Similar weather is found over
Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica aided by daytime heating.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the
basin through Sat as weak high pressure prevails across the W
Atlc. A pulse of fresh to locally strong winds is expected in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight. A weak tropical wave will pass S of
Hispaniola tonight, then S of Jamaica Thu night. Fresh to strong
tradewinds will return to E and central portions of the basin Sat
night through Mon as high pres builds across the W Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low is over the central Atlantic near near 34N54W. A
stationary front curves away from the low pressure center to
32N50W to 28N50W to 22N60W to 22N65W to across the Bahamas to
29N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60-120 nm
of the front. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 15N and
E of 50W.

The low will remain nearly stationary and weaken through Thu then
begin to drift W through the end of the week. The stationary
front will gradually dissipate into the weekend. High pressure
will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature
into the weekend. Broad troughing may develop in the vicinity of
the Bahamas early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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