[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101829
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC 1700

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W from 13N southward moving W at 10
knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-07N between
32W-40W.

A tropical wave is along 54W from 13N southward moving W at 10
knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between
52W-55W.

A tropical wave is along 68W from 17N southward moving W at 10
knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 15N
between 64W-72W.

A tropical wave is along 87W from 18N southward, extending into
Honduras, moving W at 5 10 knots. No significant convection is
apparent in the Caribbean or Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N30W to
03N35W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 03N38W to
the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-10N between 10W-20W. Scattered moderate
convection is also from 04N-07N between 42W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from S Louisiana
near 29N92W to S Texas near 26N98W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the front to include SE Louisiana
and S Mississippi. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated
showers over the Florida Peninsula.

Weak high pressure across the NW Bahamas extends westward
to the central Gulf and will maintain moderate to fresh
southerly winds, highest in the western Gulf S of the front.
The NW Gulf front will reach a line from Florida Panhandle to
the SW Gulf Thu night, then stall and gradually dissipate from
the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of Campeche late Fri
through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves waves are in the Caribbean. See above.
The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the
SW Caribbean to include Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia, and
W Venezuela. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands. Similar showers are over central and eastern Cuba.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the
basin through Sat as weak high pressure prevails across the
W Atlantic. A pulse of fresh to locally strong winds is expected
in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A tropical wave in the western
Caribbean will move into Central America later today. A weak
tropical wave will pass south of Hispaniola today then south
of Jamaica Thu night. Fresh to strong trade winds will return to
east and central portions of the basin Sat night through Mon as
high pressure builds across the W Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb low is over the W Atlantic near near 35N52W. A cold
front curves away from the low pressure center to 31N50W to
23N60W to 22N70W to 29N79W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the front. Surface ridging is over the
E Atlantic N of 20N and E of 45W.

The W Atlantic low will remain nearly stationary and weaken
through the end of the week. The cold front will sag into the
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos today, then stall tonight just north
of the Greater Antilles, where it will gradually dissipate into
the weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front and be
the dominant weather feature into the weekend.

$$
Formosa
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