[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
543 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 35W from 13N southward moving W at 10
knots. Any shower activity in the vicinity of this wave is mainly
associated with the ITCZ.


A tropical wave is along 53W from 12N southward moving W at 10
knots. Scattered moderate convection is within about 120 nm E of
this tropical wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 67W from 15 southward moving W at 10
knots. All convection associated with this wave is located onshore
in Venezuela.

A tropical wave is along 85W from 15N southward, extending into
Honduras, moving W at 5 10 knots. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 11N14W
to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 06N35W, then is
interrupted by a tropical wave and then stretches from 02N37W to
02N47W. Precipitation: Numerous strong convection exits within 180
nm either side of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
convection is located within 90 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is dominating Gulf weather. With it centered to
the east of the area, moderate S winds are ongoing across the
waters. No convection is occurring.

Weak high pressure across the NW Bahamas extends westward to the
central Gulf and will maintain moderate to fresh southerly
winds, highest in the western Gulf, most of the week. A cold
front will exit the Texas coast this afternoon, reach a line from
Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf Thu night, then stall and
gradually dissipate from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of
Campeche late Fri through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough exists over the eastern Caribbean. At the
surface, lower pressure associated with a monsoon trough is
leading tonumerous strong convection in Caribbbean waters adjacent
to Colombia and Panama. Otherwise, aside from some moderate
showers south of Hispaniola, dry conditions prevail.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the
basin through Sat as weak high pressure prevails across the W
Atlc. A pulse of fresh to locally strong winds is expected in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight. A tropical wave in the western
Caribbean will move into Central America later today. A tropical
wave that passed south of Puerto Rico earlier will pass south of
Hispaniola today then south of Jamaica Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 32N54W. A cold front
curves away from the 1010 mb low pressure center to 22N60W, then
stalls and extends NW to 30N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the frontal boundary, especially east
of 65W.

The low will remain nearly stationary and weaken through the end
of the week. The cold front will sag into the Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos today, then stall tonight just north of the Greater
Antilles, where it will gradually dissipate into the weekend. High
pressure will build in behind the front and be the dominant
weather feature into the weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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