[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100515 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W/35W from 13N southward moving W 10
to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving through
the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ
precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 51W/53W from 12N southward moving W 10
knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 270 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 12N
southward.

A tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 17N southward moving W 10
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 130
nm to the east of the tropical wave from 08N northward.

A tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 17N southward moving W 10
knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 11N14W
to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 06N33W. The ITCZ
also is along 01N/02N between 37W and 47W. Precipitation:
Scattered strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm of the coast of
Africa between 05W and 15W, and from 03N to 06N between 18W and
22W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge passes through 29N81W along the NE
Florida east coast, across the northern half of the Gulf of
Mexico, to the border of south Texas and NE Mexico.

Weak high pressure across the NW Bahamas extends westward to the
central Gulf of Mexico. The weak high pressure will maintain
moderate to fresh southerly winds, the highest in the western
Gulf of Mexico, most of the week. A cold front will enter the
northern Gulf of Mexico late on Wednesday. The front will
stretch from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday night. The front will stall, and dissipate gradually
from the Florida Big Bend to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
from late Friday through late Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, near the
1010 mb low pressure center, to Hispaniola. The upper level
trough continues from Hispaniola toward the border of Colombia
and Panama. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 45 nm of the southern
coast of Haiti.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond
SE Costa Rica. Precipitation: numerous strong covers Colombia,
and border sections with Venezuela, from 05N to the coast of the
Caribbean Sea, between 71W and 76W, and within 120 nm of the
coasts of Colombia and Panama from 79W eastward. The base of an
upper level trough also is in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Broken to overcast multilayered debris clouds, from earlier
precipitation that has dissipated already, covers the rest of
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 70W
westward.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail in most of the basin
through Saturday, as weak high pressure prevails across the
western Atlantic Ocean. Pulses of fresh to strong winds are
expected
across the Gulf of Honduras for the next several nights. A
tropical wave will pass to the south of Puerto Rico late today,
to the south of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and then to the south
of Jamaica on Thursday. High pressure will move over the western
Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. The high pressure will
support fresh to strong trade winds from 80W eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 32N54W. A cold front
curves away from the 1010 mb low pressure center, and it passes
through 32N52W to 30N51W, and to 23N60W 22N64W, 24N70W and
31N78W. The front becomes dissipating stationary to the
northwest of 31N78W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 60 nm to 75 nm on either side of the cold front.

The current cold front, that is associated with the 32N54W 1010
mb low pressure center, will sag slowly south and east through
tonight. The front will stall from just north of the Greater
Antilles to across the Bahamas, from Wednesday into Thursday.
High pressure will build in behind the front, and it will be the
dominant weather feature through late week.

$$
mt
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