[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 072352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch along the coast of Louisiana from east of
Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 89.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later this evening and tonight, followed
by a northward motion Monday night and Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across southeastern
Louisiana through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and
Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening will begin overnight, and Cristobal is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.  A NOAA automated observing station on Dauphin
Island, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h), and a Weatherflow site on Ship
Island, Mississippi, observed a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h)
and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.

RAINFALL:  Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal.  This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and
widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across eastern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern
Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto
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