[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 072040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 89.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 89.9 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a gradual
turn toward the north-northwest later this evening and tonight.  On
the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland
across southeastern Louisiana this afternoon through Monday morning,
and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and offshore oil platforms
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall.
Gradual weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, an oil rig
located about 80 miles south of Mobile, Alabama, measured a
sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h)
at an elevation of 123 ft. A NOAA automated observing station on
Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 42
mph (68 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h), and a Weatherflow
site on Ship Island, Mississippi, observed a sustained wind of 41
mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 12 inches.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local
amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal.  This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and
widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
northern Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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