[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 052051
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

The center of the tropical cyclone has moved into the Gulf of
Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Earlier
scatterometer and surface synoptic data indicated that the system
had already re-strengthened into a tropical storm.  The system has
been exhibiting fairly well-defined convective banding over the
northern and eastern portions of the circulation.  However, the
central convection is minimal at this time and upper-level outflow
is being restricted over the southwestern quadrant due to a trough
over the Bay of Campeche.  The current intensity is kept at 35 kt in
agreement with the earlier observations.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a
few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal's
strength.  Although the cyclone will be traversing fairly warm
waters during the next couple of days, dry mid-level air and some
southwesterly shear is expected to limit intensification.  The
official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous ones
and close to the model consensus.

Cristobal has moved a little faster over the past several hours, and
the current motion is estimated to be northward at 11 kt.  For the
next couple of days, the cyclone should continue to move generally
northward through a weakness between subtropical high pressure
areas.  A bend toward the north-northwest is forecast just after
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast due to the slight building of a
ridge to the northeast of Cristobal.

The size of the wind field and timing of the new track forecast
require the issuance of storm surge and tropical storm warnings for
a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more
information.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued for those areas.  Life-threatening
storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other
portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge
Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night
along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and
a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds
will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s
center.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller
tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions
of Louisiana and Mississippi.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.4N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.9N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 24.9N  90.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 26.7N  90.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 28.5N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 30.4N  91.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  08/1800Z 32.8N  92.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1800Z 39.5N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  10/1800Z 50.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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