[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 051449
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system
is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images.  A
large convective band has become better defined over the northern
and eastern portions of the circulation.  However, central
convective features are still lacking.  The current intensity
estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations.
Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal
this evening as the center moves back over water.  Additional
intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this
should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear.  The
official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous
advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model
consensus.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about
360/10 kt.  For the next couple of days Cristobal should move
mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical
anticyclones.  A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely
after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some
building of a ridge to the northeast.  The official track forecast
is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.

Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is
expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches
the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge,
and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center
of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus
on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone.


Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2.  Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big
Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the
Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch
has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm force winds
beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s
center.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers
possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.0N  89.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 21.7N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1200Z 23.8N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 25.6N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 27.3N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 29.1N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...ON COAST
 72H  08/1200Z 31.2N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z 36.7N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 43.0N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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