[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
215 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is near 17.8N 90.4W at
05/0300 UTC. This position also is about 125 nm/235 km to the
south of Campeche, inland in Mexico. Cristobal is moving eastward,
or 90 degrees, 3 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with
gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 130 nm
of the center in the eastern quadrant, from Belize into much of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 340 nm to 475 nm to 615 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
in parts of NW Cuba and to the south of Cuba, in the Yucatan
Channel, and in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Damaging and
deadly flooding already has been occurring in parts of Mexico and
Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional
extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest
additional rainfall is expected in the far southern sections of
Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and along the eastern
Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. It
is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and
forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological
service, for more details.

Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge into the waters of the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and move northward into the
central and northern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. There is a
risk of tropical storm force winds during this weekend, from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. There is also a risk
of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend.
These hazards will arrive well in advance of, and extend well to
the east of, Cristobal's center. It is likely that storm surge and
tropical storm watches may be issued for a part of the U.S.A.
coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the U.S.A. coast of the
Gulf of Mexico, from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into
early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central
American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe
flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern
Mexico during the last several days. Abundant tropical moisture
in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and
northern parts of Central America. More heavy rain is expected in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatan, and in
El Salvador with 5 to 10 inches of rain. 2-4 inches of more rain
are expected in Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz
and Oaxaca through Saturday.

Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local
or national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, from 10N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 330 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from
11N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 250 nm on either side of the tropical
wave, from 09N to 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N17W and 05N24W. The ITCZ is along 03N40W 05N46W
08N50W 09N54W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm
on the NE side of the ITCZ between 43W and 45W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong: is within 270 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough between 11W and 19W; and from 120 nm to 200 nm to
the north of the ITCZ between 44W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Depression Cristobal.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, to the east of the line that runs from the Florida Big
Bend, to 27N92W, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico along
93W. Similar clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. The clouds
and precipitation are related to moisture that is around the
periphery of the circulation of T.D. Cristobal.

A surface ridge is along 28N80W in Florida, across the northern
part of the Gulf of Mexico, into the upper Texas Gulf coast.

Tropical Depression Cristobal inland near 17.8N 90.4W 1000 mb at
11 PM EDT moving E at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40
kt. Cristobal will remain inland near 19.1N 90.1W Fri morning,
then move offshore at 20.9N 90.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a
tropical storm near 22.5N 90.6W Sat morning, 24.3N 90.5W Sat
evening, 26.3N 90.4W Sun morning, and 28.3N 90.9W Sun evening.
Cristobal will weaken to a tropical depression, while moving
inland into Louisiana late Mon. Moderate to fresh southerly wind
flow will be present across most of the Gulf of Mexico waters
through Monday night, once Cristobal moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia
near 08N74W, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, through
central Nicaragua, into central Honduras. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 280 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough, from 18N southward from 79W westward, and in the
western half of Panama.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area
that is around T.D. CRISTOBAL, that is inland in Mexico, off the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 70W westward
in general.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level western
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern
half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 70W eastward.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre,
will persist in the northern part of Central America and in
southern Mexico for several days. Expect widespread rainshowers
and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea into the weekend. Strong
SE winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras,
and east of Yucatan, through Saturday evening. It is possible
that the wind speeds may reach near gale-force in the Yucatan
Channel, from Friday through Saturday. Fresh to strong trade winds
will continue in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N47W,
to 29N50W, to 26N54W, 25N59W, and to 26N67W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is to the north of the stationary front.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough passes through 32N22W,
to 26N30W and 26N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N
northward from 42W eastward.

The current stationary front along 25N will dissipate tonight.
Abundant moisture inflow from the Central American Gyre and
Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to support scattered
rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Florida and
the Bahamas. These rainshowers will persist into early next week,
as Cristobal moves toward the north-central Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure to the north of the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds, mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through Saturday.

$$
mt
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