[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Thu Jun 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Storm Cristobal is near 17.5N
90.8W at 04/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 3 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Some
additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Cristobal will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala
and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to
move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Currently, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
noted over the Yucatan Peninsula. Similar convection is also seen
in a band extending between San Andres Island and the coastal
plains of Nicaragua, all the way to the NW to Cancun, Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over portions of
Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador.

Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall
could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of
dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend.
These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in
advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area
tonight or Friday.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central
American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe
flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last several days. Abundant tropical
moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE
Mexico and northern Central America. More heavy rain are
expected in the Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo and
Yucatan, as well as over El Salvador, with additional 5 to 10
inches of rain. Additional 2-4 inches of rain are expected in
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca
through Saturday.

Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local or national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 37W and from 18N southward, is
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted where the wave axis
meets the ITCZ.

A second tropical wave is analyzed along 57W and from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the
wave axis, mainly S of 12N to the coast of South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N34W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N40W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection can be found N of the ITCZ from 04N
to 08N between 25W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Depression Cristobal.

The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico supports an area of fresh to strong easterly winds
across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 23N, with seas of 8-10 ft
roughly between 87W and 93W. As Cristobal moves back into the
Gulf waters by late Fri, winds and seas will continue to
increase across the Gulf region. The large circulation of
Cristobal is forecast to dominate most of the Gulf region with
the strongest winds and highest seas over the eastern semicircle.

Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western
periphery of the Bermuda high, and a diffluent pattern aloft
continues to support shower and thunderstorms over most of the
Florida Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will again be possible over South Florida on Friday along with
heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for South Florida
through Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico for the next few days. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details. This is also forecast to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through
at least Sat.

The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong SE
winds over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras.
As tropical cyclone Critobal moves back into the Gulf of Mexico
waters by late Fri, the pressure gradient will tighten between
Cristobal and the Atlantic high pressure. As a result, strong
southeast winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of
Honduras and east of Yucatan Peninsula through Sat night. Winds
may reach gale force in and near the Yucatan Channel Fri through
most of Sat along with building seas of 15-17 ft. Fresh to
strong trade winds will continue over the central Caribbean
through early Sat. Fresh to strong southerly winds could affect
the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Fri and Sat.

A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce some convective
activity over Cuba. As previously mentioned, a band of showers
and thunderstorms is over the western Caribbean. Elsewhere,
patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

A stationary front extends from 31N47W to 25N60W to 26N70W.
This front is forecast to slowly dissipate tonight into Fri.
Convection is limited in association with this front. High
pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade
winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat before diminishing
slightly Sun through Mon. Farther E, a low pressure of 1008 mb
is spinning between the Azores and the Madeira Islands with a
trough extending into the forecast area to near 28N27W. Some
shower activity is around the low center.

$$
GR
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