[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 032039
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short
distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm
force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported.  The current
intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and
maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory.  Since the system
has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a
slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical
depression by late Thursday.  Once the center re-emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday,
re-intensification should begin.  However, the model guidance
currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf
will not be very conducive for strengthening.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the
high end of the guidance suite.  As has been noted, however, there
is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when
it approaches the northern Gulf coast.  This is due to the
limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3
kt.  Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain
over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico.  Later in the forecast period, an
increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move
back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus
TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle.  While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.3N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 18.0N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1800Z 18.3N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 19.0N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 20.3N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/0600Z 22.0N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1800Z 24.0N  90.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/1800Z 28.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/1800Z 31.7N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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