[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 031455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center
of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the
west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC.  Data from the aircraft
and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity
was about 50 kt.  Now that the center of circulation has moved
inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence.  However, the
large circulation will take some time to spin down.  It is
anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow
evening.  Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to
emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is
predicted.  However, the global models show increased southwesterly
shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and
this should limit intensification.  The official intensity forecast
is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance.  However, there is
significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be
dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt.
Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a
cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico.  Then, the cyclone should turn
northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of
Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days.  The
official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle.  While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.6N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/0000Z 18.4N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1200Z 18.1N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0000Z 18.9N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1200Z 20.0N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/0000Z 21.5N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1200Z 23.5N  90.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/1200Z 27.6N  90.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  08/1200Z 31.0N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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