[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 19.0N 92.1W at
03/0600 UTC. This position also is about 120 nm WSW of Campeche
Mexico. Cristobal is moving southward 1 knot. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 220 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant: from 16N to 20N between 89W and 93W, including
in the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, and in the northern part of Guatemala. Widely
scattered moderate to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
elsewhere from 20N southward between the storm and 95W.
Movement: the storm is expected to move slowly southward or
southeastward, as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre that
is centered in eastern Mexico.  This motion should bring the
center onshore to the coast of Mexico, in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, later tonight or on Wednesday. Cristobal is
forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or
southeast through early Thursday, after landfall. Increasing
southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward
in the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
Additional heavy rainfall is expected in southern Mexico and
northern Central America, potentially leading to life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides during the next few days.
Please read the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov
for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation, that has been bringing heavy rainfall and
severe flooding to parts of Central America and southern Mexico,
during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is
expected through Saturday, in parts of southern Mexico from the
Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern sections of
Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts of Belize,
Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it is likely
that these areas also may receive additional heavy rainfall. It
is possible that the rainfall total for the entire event, with
both tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end up
reaching 35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the
rains may lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please
read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is on either side of the tropical wave, with either the
monsoon trough or with the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W and 03N22W. The ITCZ is along 06N
from 29W to 46W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 220
nm to the north of the ITCZ between 42W and 45W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough between 18W and 25W. Isolated moderate covers the rest of
the area from the monsoon trough to 10N from the 26W/27W
tropical wave eastward, and within 300 nm to the north of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico, except within 215 nm of the coast of Texas. The
clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around
the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal near 19.0N 92.1W 996 mb at 1 AM EDT
moving S at 1 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Cristobal will move to near 18.7N 92.1W Wed, inland to near
18.4N 91.8W Wed night, then continue inland and weaken to a
tropical depression on Thu. Cristobal is forecast to re-
intensify to a tropical storm near 19.6N 91.1W on Fri, then
increase in intensity and move northward through Sat night.
After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow
will be present across most of the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the
area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from
70W westward in general, specifically: in the waters between
Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba; and from 15N northward from 82W
westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level Atlantic
Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern half of
the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the Mona Passage.

One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia,
across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond northern
Nicaragua, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line that
runs from the NE corner of Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia
near 11N75W. Scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia and
Venezuela from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern
Mexico for several days. Expect widespread heavy rainshowers and
thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds, and
seas, are expected to continue in the Gulf of Honduras and
east of Yucatan, through Saturday. Fresh trade winds are
expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W, to
27N60W, 25N70W, to the NW Bahamas between Andros Island, Grand
Bahama Island, and the Abaco Islands. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 275 nm to the SSE of the
cold front from 66W eastward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to
29N20W, 28N30W, 30N37W, to 34N43W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

The western Atlantic Ocean cold front will drift southward, and
stall overnight. The front will dissipate, slowly, through
Wednesday. High pressure to the north of the front will support
moderate to fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola through
Saturday.

$$
mt
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