[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022234
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 19.1N 92.5W at 02/2100
UTC or 120 nm WSW of Campeche Mexico moving S at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is within 270 nm of the center in the east semicircle
and 180 nm west semicircle, including the Yucatan Peninsula and
portions of southern Mexico. Cristobal is forecast to meander over
the southern Bay of Campeche through Wednesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected over southern Mexico and northern Central
America, potentially leading to life- threatening flash floods and
mudslides during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast
advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation that has been bringing heavy rainfall and
severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the past several days. Additional heavy rainfall
is expected through Saturday over portions of southern Mexico
from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern portions
of Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize,
Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also
likely to receive additional heavy rainfall. The rains could
lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to
products issued by your local or national meteorological
service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25N S of 18N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
from 01N- 08N between 20W-24W, and from 05N-10N between 27W- 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W S of 18N moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 07N23W. It resumes
from 06N30W to 06N46W. Along the coast of Africa, scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 02N- 12N, east of 18W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N- 08N
between 30W- 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Cristobal. Moist
cyclonic surface wind flow covers the central and northern Gulf
of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover most of
the Gulf. Outside of winds associated with Cristobal, moderate to
fresh winds prevail.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with the Central American Gyre
will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through the week. Tropical
Storm Cristobal will move to near 18.8N 92.6W Wed morning, inland
to near 18.4N 92.4W Wed afternoon, then continue inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 18.2N 91.8W on Thu morning
and inland to near 18.5N 91.6W Thu afternoon. Cristobal is then
forecast to re- strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.1N 91.4W
Fri morning, and track to near 20.4N 91.5W Fri afternoon.
Cristobal is forecast to increase slightly in intensity as it
tracks northwestward to inland the north-central Gulf late Sun.
After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow
will be present across most of the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the
western Gulf of Honduras. This convection is stronger and more
widespread farther west, over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is also seen over the
southwest Caribbean to the SW of a line from 09N77W to 15N83W and
extending over land areas from NW Colombia to eastern Nicaragua.
Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the Greater Antilles
from Hispaniola to Cuba. Isolated tradewind showers prevail over
the remanider of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over
the Gulf of Honduras and the south central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico during the week leading to scattered
showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will
increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through Sat as a
result. The Bermuda High will rebuild north of the basin today,
which will lead to the development of fresh winds in the south-
central Caribbean through Sat, diminishing some on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N52W to 26N62W to 26N78W. A surface
trough is from 25N60W to 21N63W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 210 nm E of the cold front and near the surface trough,
mainly east of 65W and north of 23N. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail W and N of the front. The front will continue southward
and stall along 23N by early this evening before dissipating
overnight tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed
through Sat, mainly north of Hispaniola. These winds diminish
slightly on Sun.

Farther east, a 1022 mb high is near 29N46W. A cold front extends
from near the Madeira Islands to 27N26W to 30N35W. Isolated
showers are near the fronts. Gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail
S of 20N. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

$$
AL/Hagen
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