[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three is centered near 19.6N 92.1W at 02/0900
UTC or 90 nm W of Campeche Mexico moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt.The depression is forecast to strengthen to a
tropical storm today, and it will meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche through Thursday. TD Three will will act as a focus
for additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico.
See the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more
information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

TD Three is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation
that has been bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to portions
of Central America and southern Mexico during the past few days.
Additional heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Honduras. These rains
could lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain over
portions of southern Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala. Please
refer to products issued by your local or national
meteorological service for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 23W from 15N southward moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the wave axis from 04N-06N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W S of 15N moving W around
10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near
06N24W to 06N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is from 05N-
07N between 25W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on TD Three.

Numerous moderate to scattered strong shower and thunderstorms
activity is noted from Belize through Campeche to within 120 nm in
the northeast semicircle of TD 3. Scattered moderate convection
is also active from 24N to 27N between 83W- 87W. Outside of winds
associated to TD Three, gentle to moderate winds prevail with 3
to 5 ft seas.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with the Central American Gyre
will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over much of
Central America and the the Gulf of Honduras in association with
the Central America Gyre. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean from eastern Panama to
northeast Nicaragua. Isolated trade wind showers are seen over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail
over the Gulf of Honduras with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, and
moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas.

The Central American Gyre, will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico during the entire week leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean.
Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off
Yucatan through Sat as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild
to north of the basin today, which will lead to the development
of fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N58W to
central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90
nm east of the front from 25N to 28N. Fresh to strong NE winds
behind front have diminished to 15 to 20 kt, with 5 to 8 ft seas.
The front will drift south and stall along 25N today, before
dissipating tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed
through Sat, mainly north of Hispaniola.

Farther east, a cold front is approaching the Canary Islands,
reaching southwest to 25N30W. Weak ridging is noted north of 20N between
this front and the front over the western Atlantic. This pattern
is supporting mostly moderate trade winds farther south, and light
to gentle winds north of 20N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft.

$$
Christensen
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