[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Three is over the southeastern Bay of
Campeche near 19.6N 91.9W as of 02/0300 UTC, or about 94 nm west-
southwest of Campeche Mexico, moving WNW at 6 kt. Minimum
pressure
is 1005 mb and maximum sustained winds are near 25 kt gusting to
35 kt. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical
storm on Tuesday as it moves westward over the southern Bay of
Campeche. The cyclone is expected to meander over the southern
Bay
of Campeche Tuesday through Thursday. TD Three will will act as a
focus for additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern
Mexico. See the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov
for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

TD Three is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation
that has been bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to portions
of Central America and southern Mexico during the past few days.
Additional heavy rainfall is expected over portions of southern
Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Honduras. These rains
could lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain over
portions of southern Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala. Please
refer to products issued by your local or national
meteorological service for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W from 15N southward moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the wave axis from 07N-10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W S of 15N moving W around
10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near
05N24W to 05N44W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is from
04N-08N between 25W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on TD Three.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen south
of 26N between 85W-96W, including SE Mexico E of Veracruz and
Oaxaca. This activity is associated to TD Three and the larger
circulation of the Central American Gyre. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere over the SE Gulf of Mexico, south
of 26N. Scattered showers are also over the N Gulf N of 26N.
Outside of winds associated to TD Three, gentle to moderate
winds prevail.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with the Central American Gyre
will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring over much of
Central America and the the Gulf of Honduras in association with
the Central America Gyre. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean and N Colombia. Isolated
trade wind showers are seen over the central and eastern
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.

The Central American Gyre, will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico during the entire week leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean.
Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off
Yucatan through Sat as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild
to north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development
of fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N62W to
26N70W to near 27N76W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N60W
to 24N67W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-29N
between 55W-64W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm
of the front. A cold front is over the eastern Atlantic from
31N21W to 25N30W to 25N37W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, a cold front along 26N will drift south and
stall along 25N by late Tue, before dissipating tonight. Fresh to
strong NE winds north of the front will diminish overnight. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate
to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Sat, mainly north
of Hispaniola.

$$
Formosa
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