[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A 1007 mb low associated with the remnants of eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Amanda is located just inland over the Yucatan
Peninsula between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen. The disturbance
is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today or
tonight, where it has a high chance of developing into a
tropical depression within the next 48 hours. The High Seas
Forecast is calling for gale force winds due to a possible
tropical cyclone, beginning by 1200 UTC Tue, over the Bay of
Campeche south of 20N. See the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

The area of low pressure mentioned above is part of the larger
Central American Gyre circulation that has been bringing heavy
rainfall and flooding to portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last few days. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of southern Mexico,
Guatemala, El Salvador and Belize during the next several days,
with lesser amounts expected for Honduras and Nicaragua.
These rains could lead to additional life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain over portions of southern Mexico, El Salvador and
Guatemala. Please refer to products issued by your local or
national meteorological service for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W from 15N southward moving W around
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm ahead and
180 nm behind the wave axis from 04N-11N.

A tropical wave is along 43W S of 15N moving W around 10 kt. A
classic inverted V pattern is seen on visible satellite imagery.
TPW imagery shows abundant moisture along and behind the wave
axis. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 120 nm
ahead and 420 nm behind the wave axis from 03N-08N. The wave
will approach the eastern Caribbean late this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N30W to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low is just inland near 18.5N90.5W between Campeche
and Ciudad del Carmen. See special features section above
regarding the tropical cyclone development threat and the
heavy rainfall threat over southern Mexico. Currently,
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
south of 22N between 87W-91W, mainly over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen elsewhere
over the southern Gulf of Mexico, south of 25.5N. Scattered
moderate convection is also seen over the western Gulf near
the Texas coast from Matagorda Bay southward from 24N-28.5N
west of 94W. Isolated showers cover the remainder of the Gulf.
A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate winds over much of the
Gulf, although fresh winds are in the southern Gulf near the
Yucatan Peninsula.

As the 1007 mb low drifts into the Bay of Campeche, strong
to near gale force winds and high seas are expected there
through mid week, with gale force winds also likely. The
low is likely to be absorbed into a broader low emerging
out of southern Mexico by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
over the Gulf of Honduras in association with the Central
America Gyre, described above in the Special Features
Section. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
currently covering much of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate isolated strong showers and tstorms are
seen over the SW Caribbean offshore of Panama and Costa
Rica, in association with the monsoon trough. Isolated
trade wind showers are seen over the eastern Caribbean.
A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds
across much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh
winds cover the Gulf of Honduras.

A Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico during the entire week leading to
scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and
seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan
through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild north of
the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 32N69W to 29N73W
to Cape Canaveral Florida. A recent ASCAT pass indicates strong
NE winds north of 29N behind the front. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are along and south of the front. A surface
trough extends from 30N65W to 24N71W. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is east of the trough from 24N-29N
between 59W-69W. Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N22W to
28N26W to 26N36W. A surface trough is from 26N36W to 29N42W.
Isolated showers are near the front and trough.

The cold front extending from 32N69W to Cape Canaveral Florida
will reach from just east of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by
late this afternoon, then stall along 25N by Tue afternoon and
dissipate by Wed. Northeast winds behind the front will be
fresh to strong through tonight. The trough from 30N65W to
24N71W will move east of 65W early this evening. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Fri.

$$
Hagen
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