[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
716 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around
the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central
America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact Belize and the
southern Yucatan peninsula. The remnant low of Amanda is now
centered along border of Mexico and northern Guatemala, but the
focused area of circulation within the larger Central American
Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for
these areas. A continued period of active and wet weather, with
periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next
several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the
current situation, with the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest
rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer
to products issued by your local weather service for more
details.

The remnant low of Amanda along the Guatemala/Mexico border is
rotating around the larger circulation of the Central American
Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche. There is a
medium possibility that the remnant circulation of Amanda may
develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges
over water.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was recognized along rough 42W/43W in an area of
rich low to mid level moisture, and where satellite derived vector
winds showed modest cyclonic turning at the same levels. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms were active within 90 nm east
of the tropical wave. The tropical wave is estimated to be moving
slowly westward, at only 5 to 10 kt. Global models show this trend
will persist through the next 48 to 72 hours. Then the wave will
increase westward and approach the eastern Caribbean late in the
week.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Sierra
Leone from 06N-10N east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the
next few days.

A dissipating cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to
the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. A few showers are noted
near 24N84W and 22N90W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed near 19N92W. These thunderstorms are
the remnants of a larger area of convection active across the
south central Gulf earlier. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are
noted in all but the southwest Gulf, where a recent scatterometer
pass indicated fresh to strong easterly winds. This was largely
due to the earlier thunderstorm activity.

Low pressure over the southern Yucatan peninsula is moving slowly
toward the southwest Gulf, possibly redeveloping into a tropical
cyclone. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas are
expected in the Bay of Campeche through mid week. Elsewhere, the
weak cold front over the northeast Gulf will gradually dissipate
today as it moves toward the far southeast Gulf. Looking ahead,
the low pressure over the southwest Gulf will be absorbed into a
broader low emerging out of southern Mexico by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the
next few days.

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras
associated with the large gyre across northern Central America
and southern Mexico. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across
the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf
of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas will persist in the Gulf of Honduras and off
Yucatan through Fri as a result of the persistent gyre in the
region. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north of the basin on
Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh winds in the
south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N72W to
Jacksonville Florida. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated
fresh to strong NE winds follow the front. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front north of 30N. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong thunderstorms are noted within 120 to 240 nm east
of a trough reaching from 29N66W to 22N72W. Gentle to moderate
trade winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N W of 55W. Light
to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the open waters
N of 20N W of 55W. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas.

The cold front along 30N will move south and extend
from just east of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late today,
stall along 25N by Tue afternoon and dissipate by Wed. NE winds
behind the front will increase to fresh to strong through
tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N
Wed through Fri.

$$
Christensen
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