[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2256 UTC Thu Jul 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 30/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 19.5N
70.6W, or about 135 nm WNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic,
moving NW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained winds is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 18N to 22N between 67W and
72W. Scattered moderate convection is in bands elsewhere from 14N
to 24N between 65W and 75W. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night
and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South
Florida on Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday
or Friday night.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

A tropical wave associated with a 1009 mb low near 13N21W is
generating scattered moderate convection from 08N to 15N between
17W and 29W. The area of low pressure associated with the wave,
which is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands has become better organized during the day.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next day or so while it drifts generally north-
northwestward. After that time, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less favorable for development. There is a
medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone
withing the next two to five days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 02N to 20N with axis near 41W, moving W
at 20 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave as it
is being influenced by the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and
strong wind shear.

A tropical wave is S of 20N with axis near 84W, moving W at 20
kt. There is no convection associated with this wave as it is
being influenced by dry air and strong wind shear.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 11N27W to 11N37W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 30W and
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 19.5N 70.6W 1003 mb at 5
PM EDT moving NW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60
kt. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Fri night
and move near or over the NW Bahamas and near South Florida on
Sat, then remain east of the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
A high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early
next week, supporting mainly gentle winds across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to near gale force SE winds are affecting the eastern
Caribbean waters as Tropical Storm Isaias continues to move
across Hispaniola. NE winds of similar magnitude are affecting
the Windward passage while fresh NE to E winds are over Cuba
adjacent waters.

Tropical Storm Isaias is near 19.5N 70.6W 1003 mb at 5
PM EDT moving NW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Isaias will move to 20.8N 72.7W Fri morning,
22.7N 75.1W Fri afternoon, then strengthen to a hurricane Sat
morning while moving NW away from the region. Tropical storm
conditions and large seas will develop tonight in the Windward
Passage. Fresh to strong flow will persist south of Hispaniola
into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Isaias near 19.5N 70.6W 1003 mb at 5 PM EDT
moving NW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Isaias will move to 20.8N 72.7W Fri morning, 22.7N 75.1W Fri
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.5N 77.1W Sat
morning, 26.1N 78.5W Sat afternoon, 27.7N 79.5W Sun morning, and
29.2N 79.7W Sun afternoon. Isaias will change little in intensity
as it moves to near 33.3N 78.0W Mon afternoon. Very large seas
are expected over a large portion of the SW North Atlantic waters
as the center of Isaias moves near the SE Bahamas by late
tonight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Fri
night and move near or over the NW Bahamas and near South Florida
on Sat.

$$
Ramos
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