[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301817
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
217 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS of 30/1500 ITC, Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 18.1N
68.9W, or about 50 nm SW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic,
moving NW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Maximum sustained winds is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection extends out 200 nm from the center
in the NE Quadrant and 300 nm SW quadrant. Tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 310 nm to the north of the center.
ASCAT pass shows winds of 35-40 kt in the NE quadrant in the area
between 66W-71W. These winds are currently affecting Hispaniola,
the Mona Passage and western PR. The highest seas are expected on
the Atlantic Ocean side north of 20N-24N, with peak seas of 13 to
20 ft in NE to E swell. Heavy rain may lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding over
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today into Fri.

On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over
Hispaniola today and move near the Southeastern Bahamas by
tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the
Central Bahamas Friday evening and approach the Northwest
Bahamas or southern Florida Saturday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located about 200 nm southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is analyzed along 20W, south of 19N with a 1011 mb low
pressure well depicted by the latest ASCAT. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-14N between
19W-24W. Some development of this system is possible during the
next day or two and a low chance of formation in the next 5
days.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 20N southward,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 03N-08N
between 36W-43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 19N southward,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are near western Panama and
eastern Costa Rica where the wave axis meets the east Pacific
monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 15N16W to 11N26W to 11N36W. Scattered moderate
convection extends about 180 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the Gulf supporting gentle to moderate E
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the basin, except for moderate
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off the west coast of the Yucatan
peninsula. An upper-level low over NE Mexico is generating upper-
level diffluence over the west-central Gulf, enhancing showers and
thunderstorms over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
Fri, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow. Beyond
that, much will depend on the track and intensity of Tropical
Storm Isaias, currently located over the eastern Caribbean. This
system may approach the Florida Straits and far southeast Gulf by
Sat and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ASCAT data shows moderate winds in the western and the
southwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the coast of Belize and the Gulf of Honduras. North of 17N
to the coast of Cuba, moderate to fresh winds are noted. Scattered
moderate to strong convection north of 14N and east of 74W is
associated to T.S. Isaias. See details about T.S. Isaias above.
Scatterometer indicates fresh to strong southeast winds north of
13N and east of 68W. Moderate SE winds are noted along the Lesser
Antilles with scattered showers near the area.

Tropical Storm Isaias will move over Hispaniola to 19.7N 71.4W
this evening, 21.4N 74.2W Fri morning, 23.0N 76.5W Fri evening,
24.6N 78.2W Sat morning, 26.2N 79.4W Sat evening, and 28.0N
79.9W Sun morning. Isaias will change little in intensity as it
moves to near 31.5N 79.1W early Mon. Tropical storm conditions
will continue for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti
through tonight, including the Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough off the SE coast of the U.S. is inducing
upper-level divergence to the SE of the trough. This is enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 31N to 29N and some isolated
activity over the Florida Panhandle. A 1023 mb high centered
near 31N59W extends across the Atlantic where ASCAT pass
indicates broad area of light winds north of 27N. A surface
trough is present near 28N50W to 17N51W. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the trough. Convection related to T.S. Isaias is
south of 22N between 64W-72W.

Tropical Storm Isaias will change little in intensity as it
moves over Hispaniola today and move near the Southeastern
Bahamas tonight Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas
Friday evening and approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern
Florida Saturday. Tropical storm conditions and very large seas
are expected over a large portion of the SW North Atlantic waters
as the center of Isaias approaches the SE Bahamas. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Fri night and approach the
NW Bahamas or southern Florida Fri night and Sat.

$$ Torres
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